The duopoly of Facebook and Google still dominates digital ad revenues worldwide, but a collective rival from the ecommerce industry is showing momentum.

The media and entertainment industries have traditionally made up a small fraction of the US digital ad market, and we expect their shares to remain flat or diminish through 2021. This partly has to do with traditional media conglomerates tightening their belts; their own ad revenues will continue to decline as ad dollars shift away from print and TV and toward the digital duopolies.

And with many digital consumer habits anticipated to stick post-pandemic, digital video is set to bolster its position as a key digital ad format for years to come. How did shifts in spend by format affect the duopoly? Digital display advertising, and particularly video, benefited from the pandemic.

Their platforms are powered by the combination of high-intent keyword searches and shopper data, giving them an even better ability than their duopoly counterparts to target the right customers with ads. More significantly, Amazon, Walmart, and Instacart possess massive troves of online and offline purchase data to demonstrate the full impact of their advertising.

US advertisers increased their investments on digital media by almost 15% last year despite a pandemic and recession, looking for flexibility and accountability.

This CMCRP estimate suggests the duopoly is much stronger in Canada compared with the US, where it will account for 55.5% of the US digital ad market in 2020. Unlike the larger and more diversified digital display market in the US, the presence of the duopoly is greater in Canada. The same is true in most other smaller ad markets where domestic players lack the scale to fend off global ad platforms.

The coronavirus pandemic is putting a major dent in US digital ad spending growth. Outlays will increase by just 1.7% this year—read on to learn what that means for major ad channels and platforms.

eMarketer principal analysts at Insider Intelligence Mark Dolliver, Jeremy Goldman, Jillian Ryan, and Debra Aho Williamson discuss their expectations for the media world next year: federal privacy regulation, a retail media trio to challenge the duopoly, the next iteration of virtual events, social entertainment's staying power, and more.

Advertisers continue to spend on digital formats in the UK, to the detriment of some traditional channels. Brexit is accentuating this trend, with the Google-Facebook duopoly proving to be the biggest winner.

Facebook and Google may be under pressure from media, governments and the public, but based on our latest estimates, advertisers don’t appear to be uncomfortable with the digital duopoly—at least, not enough to stop spending there.

eMarketer vice president of forecasting Monica Peart shares our digital ad spend estimates for the Google-Facebook duopoly and the reasons behind our recent forecast adjustments.

Amazon’s ad business to grow more than 50%, taking bite out of duopoly

eMarketer principal analyst Nicole Perrin hosts a new “Behind the Numbers” show called “The Ad Platform,” a platform to discuss all things advertising. In the first episode, Perrin sits with vice president of forecasting Monica Peart and forecasting analyst Eric Haggstrom to discuss US digital advertisers’ budgets. Consolidation is the name of the game as publishers continue to devote dollars to the duopoly and the new behemoth in town.

Advertisers are investing in products that help them accurately identify the audiences they plan to target. In recent years, a few ID consortiums launched to give advertisers an audience identification alternative to the Facebook-Google duopoly.

An expected economic recovery in 2021 bodes well for Canada’s advertising market.

Amazon’s net US digital ad revenues will rise by 41.0% this year as consumers shift dramatically to more ecommerce shopping and advertisers pay to get in front of shoppers at their leading destination.

Argentina’s policy changes could also pave the way for local retail media networks, like Mercado Ads (Mercado Libre’s advertising division), to take some share of the digital ad spending pie away from the Facebook and Google digital ad duopoly, especially since ecommerce has seen a surge of growth across the country during the pandemic.

The bill is intended to help negotiate payment deals that would “flow subscription and advertising dollars back to publishers” and away from the duopoly, according to co-sponsor Senator Amy Klobuchar’s press release. (For context, we estimate that Facebook and Google accounted for more than half of all US digital ad revenues last year, with 23.5% and 29.8% share, respectively.).

What it means for marketers: Advertisers will need to rely more than ever on just a handful of giants for paid digital media placements. If marketers are still wondering whether the digital duopoly of Google and Facebook will be disrupted, they should stop holding their breath.

Programmatic advertising will account for 83.5% of all US digital display ad dollars, or $57.30 billion, this year. Growth in social, connected TV and over-the-top (OTT) advertising will drive programmatic display to almost $80 billion by 2021.

eMarketer principal analysts Nicole Perrin and Debra Aho Williamson discuss how COVID-19 has changed engagement and the flow of ad dollars to the digital duopoly of Facebook and Google. They then talk about gamifying social distancing, Mozilla and Scroll's 'Firefox Better Web,' and Instagram 'Co-Watching.'

That report stated that RTB may be in violation of GDPR, given the inability for advertisers, publishers and even ad tech providers to properly police the passing of consent flags and identify all parties that are using and sharing consumer data. If parties cannot track this, they cannot entirely validate consumer consent.

It allows them to pool their ad inventory into a formidable ad exchange that offers reach comparable to the digital duopoly of Google and Facebook. It also promises a compelling case as a trusted, brand-safe and fraud-free environment. The threat posed by the duopoly has ultimately forced their hand.