US TV ad spending will decline from next year through 2026 except for a slight uptick in 2024. At the same time, connected TV ad spending will grow at double-digit annual rates, more than offsetting the losses on the traditional side.

Following a banner year, US ad spending in 2022 will be shaped by three key trends: Linear TV crossing the Rubicon, a billionaires’ club emerging in connected TV (CTV), and ecommerce ad spending enriching Google, Amazon, and a crop of newcomers in search and retail media.

US linear TV ad spending will hit $68.35 billion this year and fall to $64.94 billion in 2026. Despite that decline, ad spending on linear and connected TV (CTV) combined will increase from $87.24 billion this year to more than $100 billion in 2026 due to the surge in CTV viewing.

Connected TV to draw users and time spent in the US: CTV is vying with smartphones and tablets for consumer attention while generating advertiser interest, our forecast shows.

Advertising uncertainty just got worse: A report found that 17% of ads on CTV devices air while TVs are off, costing advertisers $1 billion.

Upfront spending is flowing toward streaming services. Upfront CTV ad spending will grow by 34.6% to $6.41 billion this year. For context, that’s about how much we had predicted in our inaugural forecast would be spent on total CTV advertising in 2019.

Digital video viewership continues to rise in the UK, despite already high penetration. A thirst for subscription content hasn’t quite been sated, but with a cost-of-living crisis looming, ad-supported options might garner interest among consumers.

On today's episode, we discuss the current diagnosis of Netflix—are their best days behind them, what will they need to do to keep the competition at bay, and what should we make of the rumored acquisition of Roku. "In Other News," we talk about YouTube making it easier to interact with the app on connected TVs (CTVs) and the prospect of its new frequency-capping solution. Tune in to the discussion with our analyst Ross Benes.

While traditional TV ad spending will struggle for growth in the coming years, digital video will not. A portion of digital video spend will go to the nascent CTV space, but traditional broadcasters are also developing their own streaming services (with BVOD ad spend rising at a far faster rate than traditional TV spend). Overall, the advertising opportunity for CTV remains small.

On today's episode, we discuss whether connected TV (CTV) ads are living up to the hype, what to make of the Twitter deal being put on hold, what Facebook's retirement plan may be, where Big Tech goes from here, the impact of Klarna's new "Virtual Shopping" service, an unpopular opinion about market cap, some stats about American travelers, and more. Tune in to the discussion with our director of forecasting Oscar Orozco and analysts Paul Verna and Blake Droesch.

During the 2022 midterm elections, more than $1 billion will be spent on OTT and CTV ads, research projects. With the right tools and approach, political marketers can capture opportunities within this growing landscape.

Marketers across five leading verticals all allocated more than 50% of video impression share to connected TV (CTV), according to a 2021 Innovid report, illustrating CTV’s position as a mainstream way of consuming content.

US consumers will form new patterns of device use as pandemic norms become habits that are here to stay. This includes usage of mobile and other devices returning to pre-pandemic growth levels. Our forecast for time spent with mobile, connected TV, and other devices show businesses where they should invest.

US advertisers are dedicating more of their display budgets to digital video as social video and CTV advertising climb to new heights.

This year, 57% of US video ad spending will go to linear TV, a decline from 62% in 2021 and 71% in 2020. By comparison, ad spend share is increasing for connected TV (CTV) and other digital formats such as social video.

Watching subscription over-the-top (sub OTT) video has become one of the most popular activities in the world, and the worldwide user numbers for sub OTT have become commensurately huge. Netflix remains a driving force in this digital transformation.

Several forces are driving up costs per thousand on both linear and connected TV. On the linear side, audience levels have dropped at a faster rate than ad spending, so more dollars are chasing fewer viewers.

US adults are spending more time watching YouTube on connected TVs and less time watching it on mobile devices. This year, for the first time since we began our forecast, less than half of time spent with YouTube will be on mobile, as viewers pivot to watching these videos on the same screen as their TV programming, separate from their TikToks and Instagram Reels.