This report features eMarketer’s December 2018 update to our B2B US digital ad spending forecast. It also explores the trends that are driving (and preventing) increased spend in 2019 and beyond.

Our updated US ad spending forecast shows digital ad spending outpacing expectations. Digital media will capture $111.14 billion in ad dollars in 2018 and surpass traditional media ad spending by 2019, according to our latest estimates.

eMarketer is working on an updated forecast of US digital ad spending for June. Forecasting analyst Eric Haggstrom and principal analyst Andrew Lipsman join host Nicole Perrin to talk about some of the big questions we're asking about connected TV, performance advertisers and digital ad product innovations.

Business Insider Intelligence research analyst Daniel Keyes and eMarketer principal analyst at Insider Intelligence Andrew Lipsman discuss how Amazon tripled its revenues during an economic recession. They then talk about how Pinterest posted such strong Q3 growth, Walmart converting some stores into ecommerce labs, and Under Armour selling its smartphone app MyFitnessPal.

In June, we expected Google’s net share of US search ad spending to fall from 61.3% last year to 57.5% by 2022. We now predict Google’s share will be down to 54.9% in 2022. Amazon, meanwhile, will net 21.5% of US search ad spending that year—up from our previous forecast of 19.0%.

eMarketer forecasting analyst Eric Haggstrom and principal analyst at Insider Intelligence Nicole Perrin discuss Google's (and YouTube's) latest earnings. They then talk about how much of a concern ad fraud is within connected TV advertising, the implications of the California Privacy Rights Act, and how people interpret emotionally infused ads.

The media and entertainment industries have traditionally made up a small fraction of the US digital ad market, and we expect their shares to remain flat or diminish through 2021. This partly has to do with traditional media conglomerates tightening their belts; their own ad revenues will continue to decline as ad dollars shift away from print and TV and toward the digital duopolies.

The Great Recession was a low point in the recorded history of advertising. Total media ad spending declined for two straight years in the US, and digital ad spending even dropped in absolute terms in 2009, the only time that’s ever happened. But most of the buy-side decision-makers surveyed in late March 2020 by the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) think the coronavirus pandemic will have an even worse effect on US ad budgets.

We expect a shift in US digital ad spending next year, as economic factors weigh on certain industries. In 2020, financial services will displace the auto sector, while travel will surpass consumer packaged goods (CPG).

This year will mark a major milestone in the world of advertising. For the first time, digital ad spending in the US will exceed traditional ad spending, according to eMarketer’s latest forecast. By 2023, digital will surpass two-thirds of total media spending.

In terms of media ad spending growth, the US will rank eighth this year among the markets we cover, up from 24th place in our previous forecast. As for digital ad spending, the US will come in second with 7.5% growth, up from our previous forecast of 19th place with 1.7% growth.

We will also update our full-year digital ad spending forecasts, including ad spending on the major social media platforms, in June. Social Ad Pricing. In general, we expect social ad prices to remain depressed at least through Q2, and possibly longer, based on our qualitative research and our analysis of industry ad spending trends.

In light of the coronavirus pandemic, we have revised our US mobile ad spending forecast. This report puts the new numbers in context.

US spending on search advertising will decline by between 8.7% and 14.8% in H1 2020. That’s about $6 billion to $8 billion less than we expected. Our previous forecast of US digital ad spending, completed on March 6, 2020, called for a 14.4% increase in search ad spending for all of 2020.

The coronavirus pandemic and its effects on the economy have upended media plans. eMarketer forecasting analyst Eric Haggstrom joins host Nicole Perrin to talk about research on what advertisers are doing to respond and which channels are getting hit hardest, as well as what current developments might mean for our next US digital ad spending forecast.

The digital duopoly of Facebook and Google is holding strong, according to our latest forecast for US digital ad spending. We estimate the two companies will increase their slice of the pie this year, dipping slightly in 2020, and pick up share once again in 2021.

Google’s position as the search advertising leader in the US is on solid footing, according to our latest US digital ad spending estimates. This year, Google will net more than 73% of US search ad spending, down less than 1 percentage point since 2018.

US marketers allocated more than $7 billion in digital ad spending to YouTube last year, eMarketer estimates, up 15.1% over 2018 spending levels. That resulted in more than $3.4 billion in net ad revenues for the video-sharing giant, with most of the remainder going to content creators.

Retailers’ digital ad spend parallels that of the overall US digital ad market this year, growing 19.1%, according to our latest forecast. For this industry, mobile and search advertising dominate ad spend allocation.

We currently expect US total media ad spending to increase by 8.7% in 2020, and US digital ad spending to rise by 16.7% over the same period. We will continue to monitor research, surveys and data for any changes and will adjust our forecasts and analysis as needed going forward.

Mobile ad spending in the US was up 23.0% last year, we estimate, reaching $87.30 billion. That translated to just under two-thirds of all digital ad spending in the country.