As host nations, Argentina and Colombia were both expected to see a bump in ad spend this year primarily due to out-of-home (OOH) and TV. As a result of the postponement—in addition to the cancellation and rescheduling of the Tokyo 2020 Olympics—we believe traditional media ad spending will see significant decreases this year, most notably in OOH and TV.

Nearly one in four US internet users said they first heard about a D2C brand they purchased from via traditional channels, such as out-of-home (OOH) and word-of-mouth, according to a March 2019 survey from Toluna. But leveraging traditional marketing isn’t a one-size-fits-all approach. It requires continuous testing to determine the most effective channels for specific products or audiences.

Recent gains in direct-to-consumer (D2C) ecommerce sales are being driven more by incumbent brands than disruptors. What can they learn from each other about building brands in the digital age?

For March and April, the IAB respondents expected the largest decreases to their ad spending to occur in traditional out-of-home (OOH), digital OOH, and terrestrial radio, likely reflecting the fact that mass quarantines mean people are much less likely to be experiencing any of those media. But significant drops in spending were expected across all channels mentioned.

The CPG industry will increase its investments in digital advertising this year as strong sales of essential goods and personal care products—particularly on ecommerce platforms—gave advertisers reasons to keep spending during the pandemic.

For example, we expect TV ad spending to decline by 15.0% this year, as print and radio spending drop by about 25% and out-of-home by 4.6%. Total US media spending will decline by 6.8% in 2020 to $225.79 billion. Still, this does represent a significant downgrade of our expectations for digital ad spending.

Social Distancing Will Have Largest Affect on Out-of-Home. Out-of-home (OOH) advertising will experience the largest setback of any ad format during the crisis. In our March 2020 Canada ad spend forecast, we had anticipated OOH would be the sole traditional format to experience positive growth in 2020. However, due to the pandemic, we expect OOH to total CA$702.8 million ($529.68 million).

It should also be noted that OOH is at a disadvantage, because measuring return on investment (ROI) for traditional outdoor is still difficult. The transition to digital and programmatic OOH can potentially address this issue, but standards of measurement are lacking in the industry overall.

Contrast that with substantial double-digit declines for all traditional channels: TV by 21.0%, out-of-home (OOH) by 21.8%, radio by 23.5% and print by 27.0%. Assuming there is no second wave of infection in the UK, we expect total ad spending to rebound in 2021.

OOH is very closely tied to the economic environment, and especially during this short period of restricted travel and movement of consumers, advertisers are aggressively pulling back advertising. Like the TV sector, OOH was already set for a decline in Q1 2020 of between 2.0% and 8.0%.

The COVID-19 pandemic and efforts to mitigate it are wreaking havoc on the economy. How will advertisers respond? We looked back at our coverage of the industry during the Great Recession of 2007-2009 for historical perspective and precedents.

Out-of-home (OOH) advertising will be the hardest hit. H1 2019 OOH ad spending in France reached €709.0 million ($790.0 million). But with almost no one traveling, visiting shopping malls or spending time in public places, pulling OOH campaigns is a no-brainer for brands.

In Q2, we think the level of OOH spending’s decline will be between 50.0% and 60.0%. We expect OOH will suffer from reduced foot traffic in places like Yonge-Dundas Square in Toronto. Foot traffic in typically dense areas of Canada declined between 65% and 95% in March and April, according to a Chameleon Digital Media study commissioned by Omnicom.

Entertainment services that could be accessed at home had a banner year, while out-of-home (OOH) entertainment revenues cratered. Demand for essential goods boomed, while demand for some discretionary products wobbled.

Speaking of traffic, I noticed a lot of out-of-home [OOH] Verishop ads in New York City bus shelters and subways. Where else are you marketing? We're in a testing mode right now. We're testing everything from OOH to digital to out-of-mailer and affiliate marketing. With OOH in New York, we saw quick success. We have done that in Chicago and San Francisco as well.

OOH will also suffer because the majority of outdoor inventory in Germany is static. Digital OOH—which is often more engaging and can take advantage of news, weather and other developments in near-real time—is still a nascent industry. One sign of hope for OOH is that Germany has recorded low rates of coronavirus infection and deaths, compared with France, Italy, Spain and the UK.

Connected vehicles are changing the nature of transportation and mobility. Players in the traditional automotive ecosystem—including retailers and marketers—are using the massive amounts of data connected cars produce to enhance brand loyalty, create new revenue streams, and drive business growth.

Digital-only banks—and neobanks in particular—have emerged as potent threats to incumbents, and many disruptors that could further shake up the US banking market loom large. But incumbents can still secure digital account holders by adopting digital best practices championed by challengers.

Both OOH and TV ad spending are expected to rebound in 2021 to some extent. OOH should return to a relatively healthy footing, and TV, though still amid a long-term decline, will make up some of the ground that was lost in 2020’s unusually steep contraction. Radio, newspaper and magazine ad spending is expected to show a double-digit decline this year.