These moves were likely meant to capture some market share from Amazon, whose 38.9% share made it the leader of the US ecommerce market in 2020, per eMarketer estimates from Insider Intelligence. In spite of the rival events, Amazon still managed to net $6.17 billion in sales during Prime Day, according to our forecasts.
Even as total worldwide retail sales declined by 3.0% in 2020, retail ecommerce growth boomed to 27.6%. Ecommerce growth will decelerate substantially in 2021 to 14.3% as brick-and-mortar sales recover.
Certain categories were also more likely to get permission from users. Utilities topped the list, on a per-user and per-app basis (45% and 39%, respectively). Shopping apps were the second-likeliest category, with 39% and 37% respective opt-in rates, followed by social apps at 33% and 36%. Gaming apps saw the least opt-ins.
Following a strong Q1 fueled by government stimulus, we have increased our forecast for US retail ecommerce sales in 2021. US ecommerce sales are expected to grow 17.9% this year (higher than the 13.7% predicted in January 2021) to reach $933.30 billion. That pushes ecommerce’s share of total US retail sales to 15.3%, up from 14.0% last year. Ecommerce is now on track to surpass 20% of total retail by 2024.