In this episode hosted by eMarketer global director of public relations Douglas Clark, vice president of forecasting Monica Peart sheds light on how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting eMarketer’s traditional ad spending forecasts.

Insider Intelligence and its eMarketer team generate roughly 1,500 forecasts on digital transformation topics every year. These estimates are mainly produced on an annual basis, with several of the highest-profile metrics reassessed one additional time during the year.

Out-of-Home Ad Spending Will Fall the Most. With consumers hunkered down at home, OOH ad spending took an early hit in China. In our March forecast, we had already downgraded our forecast for year-over-year OOH ad spending growth in 2020 from 2.5% to 0.7%. We now believe OOH declines in Q1 and Q2 will be more severe than we anticipated, resulting in a reduction between 19.5% and 26.5% in H1 2020.

Due to the health crisis, OOH ad spending there fell by 18.0% year over year (YoY) in 2020, the steepest drop across all media formats except magazines, according to our forecast. Industries that center on in-person activities, such as entertainment, restaurants, travel, and hospitality, pulled back their OOH expenditures. Not all OOH locations suffered, however.

This rebound will manifest mainly via a return to stability for China’s TV and out-of-home (OOH) ad spending, and via a reacceleration in digital ad spending. Traditional media ad spending had a very challenging 2020, as abnormal socioeconomic conditions, driven by the pandemic, changed consumer behavior to the detriment of TV, radio, newspaper, magazine, and OOH advertising.

The depth and lasting impact of the global recession, along with the sharp economic downturn in the UK, signal a long and challenging road to recovery.

Out-of-home (OOH) ad spending could also feel a negative impact worldwide if the social distancing and isolation measures that have emerged in some cities expand to larger territories.