India, Indonesia, and the US will again dot the high end of the growth rankings, although countries like Thailand and Colombia will also impress on the upside. For aggregate spending, the US and China are again way out in front, although thanks to China’s digital centricity, the US lead is not nearly as wide.

This year, Indonesia, the largest economy in Southeast Asia, according to the World Bank, will see the second-quickest growth of all countries we measure, rising by 22.2%, followed by the US (18.0%) and the UK (16.3%).

Indonesia. Indonesia will remain the second-largest country for TikTok, behind the US, among the 13 countries we forecast worldwide. Its user base will reach 22.2 million in 2020, up 57.5% YoY. That comes on top of a 130.7% increase in 2019. TikTok’s penetration among internet users in Indonesia will grow from 11.6% in 2019 to 17.1% by the end of 2020.

Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil and India will be the worst-performing countries this year, each posting double-digit declines in total ad spend. However, next year, India will reclaim a position in the global top 10 and resume its climb from there, ultimately becoming the seventh-largest market by 2024.

China’s wallets have gone mobile

Indonesia accounts for nearly half of the ecommerce in Southeast Asia, which is unsurprising given its size. We forecast $20.21 billion in digital sales for the country this year, a 15% increase over 2020.

Aside from Indonesia, the rest of the countries we track in Asia-Pacific will see minimal monthly user growth this year. That’s not to say that people aren’t sending more messages, particularly at the height of the pandemic, but that it hasn’t necessarily translated into new monthly users.

Among other individual countries we track, the Philippines and Indonesia came in a very distant second and third, with growth rates at around a third of India’s. This growth will lead India to move near the top of the list of countries with the most Snapchat users.