The COVID-19 outbreak undermined many of our pre-pandemic US forecasts. Insight can now be gleaned by examining the difference between what we thought would happen as of February 2020 vs. what our forecasts now show.

The outdoor advertising trade group Out of Home Advertising Association of America (OAAA) estimated in May 2020 that US OOH ad revenues were up 4.8% year over year in Q1. While Q1 was rosy, keep in mind that most OOH ad placements are bought months in advance and that the COVID-19 pandemic didn’t start to take an economic toll on the US until March.

McDonald’s led the US in out-of-home ad spending in 2020, devoting nearly $60 million to billboards, transit, and other outdoor formats, according to the Out of Home Advertising Association of America (OAAA) and Kantar Media. Apple and Geico trailed close behind, each spending more than $50 million.

Out-of-home (OOH) advertising saw the steepest fall, in the context of stay-at-home orders, movie theater closures, and lower levels of travel on roads, as well as by rail and other public transport. Leading OOH firm JCDecaux reported a 28.4% YoY drop in revenues in France during 2020, for example.

The COVID-19 pandemic and efforts to mitigate it are wreaking havoc on the economy. How will advertisers respond? We looked back at our coverage of the industry during the Great Recession of 2007-2009 for historical perspective and precedents.

The CPG industry will increase its investments in digital advertising this year as strong sales of essential goods and personal care products—particularly on ecommerce platforms—gave advertisers reasons to keep spending during the pandemic.

AMLO’s biggest spending cuts were primarily directed toward cinema and OOH ads. Even so, all forms of traditional media saw significant decreases across the board. However, in terms of total media share, TV suffered the biggest losses. TV’s share of government ad spending fell from 37.6% in 2018 to 28.8% in 2019. Meanwhile, print media grew from a 16.8% share to 28.6% during this same period.

If our severe scenario is borne out, spending on OOH ads will decline to just €453.1 million ($500 million) in H1 2020. Even with a rebound in H2, full-year spending on OOH ads in Germany will fall well short of the €1.26 billion ($1.41 billion) we originally predicted for 2020.

As a result, OOH advertising will post negative growth of 20.0% to 27.2% in H1 2020. The more moderate forecast represents spending of €572.1 million ($641.7 million); if the more severe forecast is borne out, spending could drop to €520.2 million ($583.4 million). With businesses temporarily shuttered and people in lockdown, OOH advertising is a wasted investment.

The coronavirus pandemic is putting a major dent in US digital ad spending growth. Outlays will increase by just 1.7% this year—read on to learn what that means for major ad channels and platforms.

In 2019, investment in OOH advertising rose 5.9%; this year, it is expected to plunge 14.0%. The continuing ban on large gatherings, and the postponement of major sporting events like the UEFA Championship, will also depress spending on OOH campaigns. Media Market Share: How Do France and Germany Compare?

Out-of-home (OOH) advertising will also take a significant hit because foot traffic is down significantly in public places. In the worst case, OOH ad spending will fall by more than a third (37.6%) year over year. A more optimistic outlook will see it decline by 30.4%, totaling CA$319.9 million. Digital video is the lone bright spot in our revised model.

In a tumultuous year for advertising, every market we cover except China will experience a decline in ad spending, and Google will see its first ever contraction in digital ad revenues.

UK out-of-home (OOH) advertising will suffer most—down between 31.0% and 43.0% in H1 2020, or £217.8 million ($278.0 million) to £302.1 million ($385.6 million). The UK’s lockdown order is having a devastating effect on the medium, with cinema spending completely on hold and roadside and transport exposures down significantly.

The Great Recession was a low point in the recorded history of advertising. Total media ad spending declined for two straight years in the US, and digital ad spending even dropped in absolute terms in 2009, the only time that’s ever happened. But most of the buy-side decision-makers surveyed in late March 2020 by the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) think the coronavirus pandemic will have an even worse effect on US ad budgets.

Out-of-home (OOH) advertising will experience the largest setback of any ad format during the crisis. In our March 2020 Canada ad spend forecast, we had anticipated OOH would be the sole traditional format to experience positive growth in 2020. However, due to the pandemic, we expect OOH to total CA$702.8 million ($529.68 million).