According to our latest forecast, eBay will make up 6.1% of total US retail ecommerce sales, compared with 4.6% for Walmart. Amazon, the No. 1 platform, will account for 47.0%, or $282.52 billion. We don’t yet forecast ad revenues for either company, and it’s too soon to tell whether their recent investments in advertising will pay off.
After all, any click-and-collect purchase is counted as a retail ecommerce sale when fulfilled via a brick-and-mortar store. There’s no attempt at obfuscation here, of course, but it does highlight a less-headline-grabbing reality—that the future of retail is omnichannel.
Outside of China and South Korea, the UK is the most-digital country worldwide in terms of retail ecommerce sales as a proportion of total retail. This year, we predict that 22.3% of total retail sales will be made through digital channels—above the US (10.7%) but slightly behind South Korea (26.2%) and even further behind China (36.6%). However, plastic still reigns when purchasing in-store.
We estimate that US Amazon retail ecommerce sales reached $187.94 billion in 2018, per our May 2019 forecast. While Amazon wouldn’t provide a precise number of sellers, a spokesperson said the marketplace has hundreds of thousands of sellers listing hundreds of millions of products.