US political advertisers will splash out $8.8 billion on video in 2022, close to the record $9.5 billion spent in 2020, despite this year marking a midterm rather than presidential election.

During presidential election years, the inflow of political ad dollars is a boon for TV media companies but has done little to fill the national ad spending void this year. Political TV spending is up more than 20% from 2016, per Amplifi’s Law.

As we have noted, it’s easier for the social platforms to rally resources against misleading information about a pandemic than it is to do so for political and socially debatable content. Defining “political” isn’t as simple as it sounds, and in this age of “alternative facts,” it’s nearly impossible to draw hard lines around political content without appearing partisan.

The coronavirus and political turmoil seen throughout the region in recent months will have negative implications for traditional media. Latin America will forego its largest local sporting event this summer, the 2020 Copa América. This, coupled with the postponement of the Summer Olympics, caused an exodus of ad dollars from traditional media formats like TV and OOH.

"The other major buoy of TV ad spending this year was political advertisers, and their spending will be hampered in Q2," Perrin said. "It’s normal for election-related TV advertising to be heavily weighted toward the last couple of months before the election, so we always expected political ad spending on TV to be concentrated in Q3.

The political ad spending did come, but nothing else about last year was as expected for TV, and spending declined by 12.5% rather than increasing by 2.0% as we had predicted. TV ad spending will rise again this year, by 6.7%, but we don’t expect it to reach 2019 levels ever again. OOH ad spending has also peaked, but in 2019.

eMarketer principal analyst at Insider Intelligence Nicole Perrin discusses whether major marketers will pull spending on social platforms because of brand safety and ethical concerns, what to make of Facebook's new advertiser “topic exclusion controls” test, and the types of content consumers prefer brands avoid the most. She then talks about tech companies introducing rules that favor their own business models, Facebook's relationship with political content, and whether Google is waving goodbye to Australia.

eMarketer senior analyst Ross Benes, forecasting analyst Eric Haggstrom and senior forecasting analyst at Insider Intelligence Oscar Orozco discuss the gradual return of sports audiences and how advertisers are viewing these marketing opportunities. They then talk about Facebook halting political ads after the election, Twitch selling inventory on Amazon's advertising platform, and out-of-home advertising in Q2.

eMarketer principal analysts Debra Aho Williamson and Nicole Perrin and forecasting analyst at Insider Intelligence Eric Haggstrom discuss consumer perceptions of the Facebook ad boycott and where dollars are being redirected. They then talk about how much is too much to pay for streaming TV, advertising expectations for H2 2020 and why WhatsApp Business has grown tenfold in a year.

eMarketer forecasting analyst Eric Haggstrom and principal analyst at Insider Intelligence Nicole Perrin discuss the implications of users being able to turn off political ads on Facebook. They then talk about the current controversy over Apple's App Store.

eMarketer forecasting analyst Eric Haggstrom joins principal analysts at Insider Intelligence Mark Dolliver, Jeremy Goldman, and Nicole Perrin to discuss the US presidential election: media usage, effective advertising, and how big tech protected its integrity. They then talk about Apple's new privacy "nutrition labels," how a virtual reality headset can tell who you are from your movements within 5 minutes, and why The Trade Desk had such a good Q3.

Short planning windows are also common in political ad campaigns where marketers require flexibility as they try to efficiently unload their budgets before Election Day. In recent months, political ad spending increased amid the buildup to the election, and CTV absorbed some of those dollars. Between April and September, CTV political ad spending at supply-side platform (SSP) SpotX increased ninefold.

In Q2, political ad spending declined, which is expected since it is historically the lightest quarter of political ad spending in election years. We still expect political ad spending to pick up in the months leading up to the November election, but those ad dollars won’t be enough to offset TV’s advertising losses elsewhere.

The political ad spending did come, but nothing else about last year went as expected for TV, and spending on that media type declined by 12.5% year over year, rather than increasing by our pre-pandemic estimate of 2.0%. While TV ad spending will rise again this year, by 6.7%, we don’t expect it to reach 2018 levels ever again. Out-of-home (OOH) ad spending also peaked, but in 2019.

Marketer Takeaway: Facebook’s political ad whack-a-mole game has accelerated the shift in political ad spending to other platforms, including over-the-top (OTT), connected TV (CTV), and Snapchat. While we don’t expect a significant pullback from those alternative channels, political advertisers are likely to return to Facebook, potentially resulting in limited inventory and higher CPMs.

With the coronavirus pandemic leading to a significant economic slowdown, we’re providing updated guidance to our clients about what we expect for ad spending during the first half of this year.