China’s retail sector has been on a steady path to recovery over the past few months. According to June data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in China, retail sales experienced a year-over-year drop of 1.8%, reaching $485.30 billion (RMB3.353 trillion). That was an increase of 1 percentage point over the prior month.

Ecommerce has been a bright spot among retail channels during the coronavirus, as consumers became reliant on digital transactions amid physical store closures and fear of infection.

The US will remain the largest market worldwide for total and digital advertising for the foreseeable future. China achieved rapid catch-up growth for a while, starting at one-quarter of the US spend in 2012 and rising to almost half by 2020.

In our first forecast for TikTok usage in India—the short-form video app's largest overseas market—we estimate that its monthly user base grew 328.8% year over year to 79.0 million in 2019. We expect that figure to reach 124.9 million this year, up 58.1%.

The first reported cases of COVID-19 were in Wuhan, China, in late December 2019. The government then issued a mandatory quarantine order on January 23 that confined the city’s inhabitants to their homes, and other cities soon followed with their own lockdowns. With little to do and nowhere to go, media usage in China spiked.

Total retail sales worldwide are expected to hit $23.358 trillion in 2020, down 5.7% from 2019—and nearly 12% below our pre-pandemic estimate of $26.459 trillion.

In a tumultuous year for advertising, every market we cover except China will experience a decline in ad spending, and Google will see its first ever contraction in digital ad revenues.

China is the largest digital market in the world, leading all countries in terms of ecommerce, mcommerce and social commerce. It’s also home to many of the largest ecommerce conglomerates, including Alibaba and JD.com, who are generating sales at a scale that far exceeds that of companies in the US—including Amazon.

This report explores the impact COVID-19 will have on our latest regional estimates and trends for total media, traditional media, digital and mobile ad spending in six markets in Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru.

Despite a downgrade to our forecast, digital ad spending in China will still grow 5.0% this year. But there will be a power swap among the major platforms, as Tencent displaces Baidu and becomes the No. 2 publisher. And Alibaba will remain No. 1, but with lowered expectations.

Among holiday shopping events in China, many outside the country have probably only heard of Singles’ Day. However, 618—which ecommerce giant JD.com launched to commemorate the company’s founding day—is gaining popularity. And given the global interest in a post-pandemic retail rebound, this year’s event was particularly worthy of attention.

Amid unprecedented recessionary headwinds caused by the coronavirus pandemic, China’s total ad spending will downshift considerably, but remain in positive territory at 0.4% growth. This will make it the only national market we cover to see net growth this year. Digital ad spending in China, meanwhile, will grow by 5.0%.

Live streaming commerce—a form of online shopping that is interactive and takes place in real time—is creating new and innovative ways for brands and retailers to connect with consumers. The format has gained wide popularity in China particularly.