Western Europe Retail and Ecommerce: eMarketer's Estimates for 2016–2021

Executive Summary

Retail sales in Western Europe will continue to grow at a steady pace in 2017, driven by the improving economy and climbing consumer confidence. While ecommerce will account for only 8.8% ($336.5 billion) of total retail sales this year, that figure will rise to 11.4% by 2021, when sales will reach $457.32 billion.

• The retail outlook in Western Europe is bright. Total retail sales in every country measured by eMarketer will grow at least moderately in 2017, resulting in a market worth $3.818 trillion.
• Retail ecommerce is growing at a faster pace than overall retail sales, and is a major driver behind the region’s expanding retail market. eMarketer expects retail ecommerce sales to total $336.55 billion in 2017, an annual increase of 12.2%. While the growth rate will slow over the forecast period, digital will account for an increasing share of total retail sales.
• Though Germany is Western Europe’s largest overall retail market, the UK is in the lead based on retail ecommerce sales. The UK also sets the pace for the region when it comes to retail mcommerce, due in part to quick adoption of mobile platforms by both consumers and retailers.
• Sweden will make the biggest total retail gains in Western Europe in 2017, though its growth rate will be somewhat lower than in previous years, and sales are growing from a low base. Spain—one of the last countries to recover from the eurozone debt crisis—will see both its total retail and retail ecommerce sales expand this year and through the end of the forecast period.