US Mobile Payments Outlook: Strong Growth Forecast for Proximity, Peer-to-Peer Payments in 2017 and Beyond - eMarketer
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eMarketer Report

US Mobile Payments Outlook: Strong Growth Forecast for Proximity, Peer-to-Peer Payments in 2017 and Beyond

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Executive Summary

Consumers in the US are growing more comfortable using their phone to make payments, whether in apps, in stores or to each other via messaging platforms and virtual personal assistants. But mass market adoption isn’t assured, especially if the value such payments provide fails to extend beyond just replacing a card swipe or dip with a tap of the phone.

  • eMarketer predicts that US proximity mobile payment value will more than double in 2017 to $62.49 billion. Thanks to robust growth through the forecast period, such payments will exceed $314 billion by 2020, surpassing US mobile commerce retail sales made via smartphones and total US mobile travel sales.
  • The number of proximity mobile payment users in the US will climb 32.4% in 2017 to 50.8 million. By 2020, close to one-third of US smartphone users will use proximity payments at least once every six months.
  • This report includes eMarketer’s inaugural mobile peer-to-peer (P2P) payments forecast, which anticipates transaction value reaching $59.42 billion in 2016. By 2017, mobile P2P payments will climb to $92.10 billion, slightly surpassing the value of proximity payments.
  • The number of adult mobile P2P users in the US is growing. Close to one-quarter of US adult smartphone users will either send or receive money via their devices at least monthly by the end of 2016. That number will increase nearly 32% in 2017 and by a further 25% in 2018.

"US proximity mobile payment transaction value will more than double in 2017 and continue to experience robust growth. By 2020, US consumers will use their phones to pay for more than $314 billion worth of goods and services at the physical point of sale."

US Mobile Payments Forecast: Proximity and Peer-to-Peer Payments

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Key US Proximity Mobile Payment Trends

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21 charts are included in the full report:

US Mobile Payments Outlook: Strong Growth Predicted for Proximity, Peer-to-Peer Payments in 2017 and Beyond

US Proximity Mobile Payment Transaction Value, 2015-2020 (billions and % change)

US Mobile Payments Forecast: Proximity and Peer-to-Peer Payments

US Proximity Mobile Payment Transaction Value, 2015-2020 (billions and % change)

Key US Mobile Commerce Metrics, 2016 & 2020

US Proximity Mobile Payment Share, by Transaction Value, 2015-2020 (% of total)

US Proximity Mobile Payment Forecast, 2015-2020

Proximity Mobile Payment Users

US Proximity Mobile Payment Users, 2015-2020 (millions, % change and % of smartphone users)

US Proximity Mobile Payment Users, by Age, 2015-2020 (millions)

US Proximity Mobile Payment User Penetration, by Age, 2015-2020 (% of smartphone users)

US Proximity Mobile Payment User Share, by Age, 2015-2020 (% of total)

US Proximity Mobile Payment User Growth, by Age, 2015-2020 (% change)

Behaviors of US Emerging Affluent* vs. Total Credit Card Users, May 2016 (% of respondents)

Mobile Phone Peer-to-Peer Payments

US Mobile P2P Payment Transaction Value, 2015-2018 (billions and % change)

US Adult Mobile Phone P2P Payment Users, 2015-2018

Mobile P2P Payment Apps/Services Used by US Smartphone Users, June 2016 (% of respondents)

Key US Proximity Mobile Payment Trends

Mobile Wallet Adoption Among US Smartphone Users, by Provider, June 2016 (% of respondents)

Digital Payment Methods Used by US Internet Users, Aug 2016 (% of respondents)

Current vs. Planned* Payment Methods Used by Internet Users in North America, July 2016 (% of respondents)

US iPhone Users Who Have Tried Apple Pay, March 2015-Oct 2016 (% of respondents)

Promotion Boosts Mobile Payments Awareness, Usage

Internet Users in North America Who Are Aware of Mobile Payment Technology*, 2012-2016 (% of respondents)

Persistent Anxiety About Security

Reasons that US Digital Payment Users Would Stop Using Digital Payment Methods, Aug 2016 (% of respondents)

Accounting for the Shift to Chip Cards

US Near Field Communication (NFC) Terminals, 2016-2020 (millions and % of EMV-capable locations)

Branded Mobile Wallets: Control vs. Fragmentation

Current Mobile Payment Strategies Among Retailers in North America, June 2016 (% of respondents)

Interviews included in the full report:

Don’t Delete that App: Retaining Loyalty on Mobile

Interview conducted on September 28, 2016

Interview conducted on October 7, 2016

Interview conducted on October 6, 2016

Interview conducted on October 14, 2016

Interview conducted on October 14, 2016

Interview conducted on October 14, 2016

Interview conducted on September 23, 2016

Interview conducted on October 7, 2016

Interview conducted on October 5, 2016

Interview conducted on October 13, 2016

Interview conducted on October 7, 2016

Interview conducted on October 4, 2016

Interview conducted on October 13, 2016

Interview conducted on October 7, 2016

Andy Barker

Senior Director, Strategy and Growth, Global Payments

Magento Commerce

Interview conducted on October 7, 2016

Nick Dunham

Director, Media

Dunkin’ Brands

Interview conducted on October 12, 2016

Marty Hahnfeld

Chief Commercial Officer

Olo

Interview conducted on October 6, 2016

Eric Hansen

Director, Digital Experience, Product Management and Omnichannel Integration

Lowe’s Home Improvement

Interview conducted on October 18, 2016

Ben Lamm

Co-Founder and CEO

Conversable

Interview conducted on October 12, 2016