US Holiday Shopping Preview 2018: Reviewing 2017, with an Eye Toward This Season - eMarketer
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US Holiday Shopping Preview 2018: Reviewing 2017, with an Eye Toward This Season

eMarketer Report

By: eMarketer

Published: March 21, 2018

Jump to: Executive Summary | Table of Contents | List of Charts

Executive Summary

In 2017, retailers posted their best holiday season since 2011. Total retail sales in the US climbed 5.5% in November and December, aided by a 17.8% increase in retail ecommerce sales. eMarketer expects ecommerce will expand at a 15.3% clip in the 2018 holiday season, while total retail sales growth will slow slightly to 3.8%.

  • Consumer confidence in the US is at its highest level since 2000, according to some measures. With low unemployment and rising wages, the immediate outlook for consumer spending remains solid.
  • US retail sales growth in November and December was broad-based, with some of the highest gains related to home improvement. The US Department of Commerce found sales of building materials and garden equipment surged by 8.1%, while furniture and home furnishing sales increased by 7.5% and sales in electronics and appliance stores grew 6.7%.
  • Despite the merry holiday season for retailers, foot traffic continues to slump. One study found foot traffic in US retail stores fell 7.5% in November and December 2017, continuing the longer-term trend toward ecommerce and away from traditional retail.
  • Mobile continues to be a driving force for ecommerce growth. US retail mcommerce sales were up more than 40% in Q4 2017, according to comScore Inc. eMarketer expects total US retail mcommerce sales will grow a further 32.7% in 2018.

"Total US retail sales climbed 5.5% during the 2017 holiday season, buoyed by a 17.8% jump in retail ecommerce sales. Both levels represented the largest increases since 2011. Growth will slow slightly in 2018, but will remain solid."

Table of Contents

Consumer Confidence Drives Strong Holiday Season

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Holiday 2017: Evolutionary, Not Revolutionary

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eMarketer’s Holiday Forecast Methodology

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20 charts are included in the full report:

US Holiday Shopping Preview 2018: Reviewing 2017, with an Eye Toward This Season

US Retail and Retail Ecommerce* Holiday Season Sales Growth, 2011-2018 (% change)

Consumer Confidence Drives Strong Holiday Season

US Retail and Retail Ecommerce* Holiday Season Sales Growth, 2011-2018 (% change)

Total Retail Had Broad-Based Growth

US Holiday Season Retail Sales Growth, by Product Category, Nov-Dec 2017 (% change vs. prior year)

US Retail Sales, 2017-2022 (trillions and % change)

US Retail Sales, Q1 2017-Q4 2018 (trillions and % change vs. same quarter of prior year)

US Retail Sales Metric Growth, July-Dec 2017 (% change vs. same period of prior year)

US Holiday Season* Retail Ecommerce Sales Growth, by Retailer, 2017 (% change vs. same period of prior year)

Ecommerce Continues to Surpass Expectations

US Retail Ecommerce Holiday Season Sales, 2014-2018

US Retail Ecommerce Sales, Q1 2017-Q4 2018 (billions and % change vs. same quarter of prior year)

US Retail Ecommerce Sales, 2017-2022 (billions, % change and % of total retail sales)

US Holiday Season* Retail Ecommerce Site Visit Share, by Referral Channel, 2017 (% of total)

Apps that US Digital Shoppers Access During a Digital Shopping Session, Dec 2017 (% of respondents)

Mcommerce Is a Key Component of Ecommerce Growth

US Retail Ecommerce Sales, Desktop vs. Mobile*, Q1 2012-Q4 2017 (billions and % change vs. same period of prior year)

Share of Desktop vs. Mobile US Holiday* Ad Purchase Conversions, by Shopping Day, 2016 & 2017 (% of total)

Desktop vs. Mobile Share of US Holiday Season* Retail Ecommerce Sales, by Product Category, 2016 & 2017 (% of total)

US Retail Mcommerce Sales, 2017-2022

US Smartphone Retail Mcommerce Sales, 2017-2022 (billions, % change and % of total retail mcommerce sales)

Holiday 2017: Evolutionary, Not Revolutionary

Percent of Holiday Shopping that US Internet Users Have Already Completed, Nov 2017 (% of respondents)

US Holiday Season Retail Ecommerce Sales, by Shopping Day, 2017 (billions and % change vs. prior year)

US Holiday Season Retail Ecommerce Sales, by Shopping Period, 2016 & 2017 (billions and % change)

US Holiday Season Retail Ecommerce vs. Total Retail Sales Growth, by Holiday Season Week, 2017 (% change vs. same period of prior year)