US Holiday Ecommerce Preview 2016: Mobile to Fuel Explosive Ecommerce Growth - eMarketer

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US Holiday Ecommerce Preview 2016: Mobile to Fuel Explosive Ecommerce Growth

eMarketer Report

By: eMarketer

Published: September 14, 2016

Jump to: Executive Summary | Table of Contents | List of Charts

Executive Summary

US retail sales during the 2016 holiday season will grow by a moderate 3.3%, eMarketer predicts. Retail ecommerce, however, will surge 17.2%, driven upward by mobile commerce, by Amazon and by more flexible fulfillment models. More generally, this season will see a closer coordination between digital commerce and physical retail.

  • Falling gas prices hurt US retail sales in 2015 and into 2016. A slowdown in gas price declines will be a major factor in boosting US retail sales growth in Q4 2016. Despite improved wages, consumers continue to shift spending to areas outside retail, notably entertainment and food.
  • Mobile remains a powerful upward force for ecommerce. US retail mcommerce will climb 43.2% in 2016, paced by a 78.3% jump in sales via smartphones.
  • Amazon will continue to outpace its competitors this year. Search agency NetElixir estimates Amazon will increase its share of US holiday ecommerce to between 28% and 30%, up from 26% in 2015.
  • 2016 will see the deepening of several ongoing trends that are shrinking the gap between ecommerce and physical retail. This year, retailers will look to leverage better fulfillment options, local advertising tools, offline attribution and omnichannel tools.
  • Conversational commerce and augmented reality have generated a lot of buzz in retail over the past couple of months, but both are still relatively early in their development. Some high profile successes, however, will presage initiatives in 2017 with broader impact.

"US retail sales will grow more quickly in the 2016 holiday season than they did last year, while retail ecommerce will record its greatest increase in five years."

Table of Contents

eMarketer’s 2016 Holiday Season Forecast

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The Shrinking Gap Between Online and Offline Commerce

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Outlook for New Technologies

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23 charts are included in the full report:

US Holiday Ecommerce Preview 2016: Mobile to Fuel Explosive Ecommerce Growth

US Retail and Retail Ecommerce* Holiday Season Sales Growth, 2010-2016 (% change)

eMarketer’s 2016 Holiday Season Forecast

US Retail and Retail Ecommerce* Holiday Season Sales Growth, 2010-2016 (% change)

2016 to Outperform 2015 in Core Retail Areas

US Retail Sales, 2015-2020 (trillions and % change)

US Retail Sales, by Segment, Q1 2015-Q2 2016 (trillions and % change vs. same quarter of prior year)

US Retail Sales, by Segment, H1 2012-H1 2016 (trillions and % change)

US Food Service and Drinking Place Sales, H1 2012-H1 2016 (billions and % change)

Ecommerce Shows No Sign of Slowing Down

US Retail Ecommerce Sales, 2015-2020 (billions, % change and % of total retail sales)

US Retail Ecommerce Sales, Q1 2015-Q4 2016 (billions and % change vs. same quarter of prior year)

US Retail Ecommerce Holiday Season Sales, 2012-2016

Mobile Revolution Will Continue

US Retail Mcommerce Sales, 2015-2020 (billions, % change, % of retail ecommerce sales and % of total retail sales)

US Smartphone Retail Mcommerce Sales, 2015-2020 (billions, % change and % of total retail mcommerce sales)

Mobile Share of US Holiday Season* Retail Ecommerce Site Traffic vs. Sales, 2010-2015 (% of total)

Mcommerce Transaction Share Among US Digital Retailers, by Segment, Q4 2015-Q2 2016 (% of total ecommerce transactions)

The Amazon Effect

Primary Location/Channel Where US Internet Users Begin Holiday Shopping When They Do Not Have a Specific Gift in Mind, Dec 2015 (% of respondents)

The Shrinking Gap Between Online and Offline Commerce

US Retail Sales and Traffic Metric Growth, Feb-July 2016 (% change vs. same period of prior year)

Better Fulfillment

Implementation of Select Fulfillment Options Among Retailers in North America, April 2016 (% of respondents)

Cutoff Date for Holiday Deliveries According to US Merchants, 2014 & 2015 (% of respondents)

Better Local Advertising Products

US Mobile Local Ad Spending, 2015-2020 (billions)

Mobile Share of Google Paid Search Ad Spending and Clicks in North America, by Device and Industry, Q2 2016 (% of total among campaigns analyzed by Merkle)

US Paid Search Ad Benchmarks: Ad Spending, Clicks and CPC YoY Growth, by Search Engine and Format, Q2 2016 (among campaigns analyzed by Merkle)

Smartphone Share of US Retail Product Listing Ad (PLA) Spending, Q1-Q4 2015 (% of total among Adobe clients)

Outlook for New Technologies

US Internet Users' Familiarity with Select Smart Technologies*, June 2016 (% of respondents)

Augmented Reality

US Internet Users Who Have Heard of vs. Tried Augmented Reality, July 2016 (% of respondents)

Types of Sponsored Content for Pokémon Go that Would Interest US Pokémon Go Players, July 2016 (% of respondents)