Television Update Fall 2016: Is the Surge in TV Ad Spending a Normal Shift or a Trend? - eMarketer

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Television Update Fall 2016: Is the Surge in TV Ad Spending a Normal Shift or a Trend?

eMarketer Report

By: eMarketer

Published: September 27, 2016

Jump to: Executive Summary | Table of Contents | List of Charts

Executive Summary

The recent upswing in TV ad spending likely signifies a normal spend fluctuation buoyed by an increase in total ad expenditures, rather than a mass return to the first screen by advertisers. But time and improved TV-digital attribution measurement will help settle the matter for certain.

  • TV ad spending in the US experienced a surge in Q4 2015 and Q1 2016, which was followed by a 4.5% increase in 2016–2017 primetime TV upfront ad sales vs. 2015–2016. Key advertiser categories driving growth included automotive and pharmaceuticals, sparked by new car models and drug brand introductions. Online gaming, airline and hotel travel TV dollars were also up sharply.
  • The recent lift in all media ad spending is the most likely driver of the TV surge. Digital ad volume, for example, has also risen swiftly. An alternative view is that advertisers are returning to TV for accountability, concerned about digital’s issues with ad blocking, ad viewability and limited digital video audience scale. However, this scenario needs to play out over a longer time span to be proven.
  • TV and digital are in a dead heat for US media dollars, and the scaling of digital video will be critical for digital’s continued advertising success.

"eMarketer expects digital ad spending will make up 36.8% of total media ad spending in the US this year, edging out TV’s 36.4% share. But the recent surge in TV ad spend may be a sign that more money is destined for the first screen."

Table of Contents

Recent TV Ad Spending Surge: Key Categories and Brands

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A Short-Term Surge or a Return to Safe Harbors?

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TV and Digital: Now the Primary Media Mix Combo

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10 charts are included in the full report:

Television Update Fall 2016: Is the Surge in TV Ad Spending a Normal Shift or a Trend?

US Total Media Ad Spending Share, by Media, 2015-2020 (% of total)

Recent TV Ad Spending Surge: Key Categories and Brands

US Primetime TV Upfront Ad Sales, Broadcast vs. Cable Networks, 2011-2016 (billions)

US National TV Advertiser vs. Ad Spending Share, Returning vs. New Advertisers, 2012-2015

US National TV Ad Spending, by Industry, 2015 (millions, % change vs. prior year and % of total)

US National TV Ad Spending Growth, by Industry, 2012-May 2016

TV and Digital: Now the Primary Media Mix Combo

Weekly Time Spent with Select Media/Devices Among US Consumers, by Age, Q1 2016 (hrs:mins)

US TV vs. Digital* Ad Spending Share, 2011-2020 (% of total media ad spending)

US Total Media Ad Spending Share, by Media, 2015-2020 (% of total)

Tactics that Occupied vs. Will Occupy Their Time/Resources According to US Digital Marketing/Media Practitioners, 2015 & 2016 (% of respondents)

Measuring TV’s Impact

Average Return on Advertising Spending (ROAS)* and Incremental Sales for US CPG Ad Campaigns, by Media, 2004-2015