Instagram will see a double-digit user gain in Germany in 2017, according to eMarketer’s first-ever estimate for that social network’s use in the country, led by adoption by younger users. But Facebook’s gains will slow to a trickle as user penetration for the country’s leading social network plateaus.
Instagram has enjoyed strong user growth in Germany in recent years, and that expansion will continue in 2017. eMarketer predicts the Facebook-owned social network’s user base in the country will swell by 26.2% to 11.2 million users, representing almost 14.0% of the population. Further growth is expected through 2021, when there will be an estimated 16.3 million Instagram users in Germany.
Consumers ages 18 to 24 will be Instagram’s biggest fans, with 51% of that age cohort’s internet users and 60% of its social network users expected to use the site at least once per month. But even in this leading age bracket, user penetration lingers considerably below the rates in the US, where nearly three-quarters of 18- to 24-year-old internet users and approximately 83% of social network users that age will turn to Instagram regularly this year.
By comparison, Facebook’s growth has begun to level off in Germany. This year, 25.9 million people—representing just under a third (31.7%) of the population and an increase of just 2.8% over 2016—will check in to the social site at least once per month, eMarketer predicts. In the US and UK, around half of the overall populations in each country will be regular Facebook users in 2017.
The 18-to-24 age group will continue to be the cohort with the widest degree of Facebook user in Germany, with 81.5% of its internet users and 95.9% of its social networker users expected to be regular Facebook users this year.
“Though Germany is immensely tech-savvy and has excellent network infrastructure, interest in social networking has never been very high—especially in comparison to markets such as the US and UK,” said Karin von Abrams, principal analyst at eMarketer. “This is largely due to the Germany’s markedly older demographic, and also a degree of conservatism inherent in the culture, which means many people are not inclined to share a wide range of personal information online. Facebook has made significant inroads, but engagement among 12- to 34-year-olds is declining to some degree as rival social sites including Snapchat and Instagram vie for user attention.”