Retail ecommerce sales in Mexico will near $6 billion this year, boosted by 30.0% growth, eMarketer estimates. Double-digit gains will continue through 2018, the last year of our forecast period. That year, retail ecommerce sales will increase 22.0% to hit $11.50 billion.

Despite impressive growth, ecommerce will represent a sliver of total retail sales in Mexico. This year, only 1.5% of the $386.60 billion in retail sales expected in the country will come from ecommerce. Between 2015 and 2018, eMarketer estimates, this share will rise just 1.1 percentage points to represent 2.6% of the $445.41 billion in total retail sales that year.

Among the Latin America countries for which eMarketer produces retail ecommerce forecasts, Mexico falls in the middle, with Brazil boasting ecommerce sales of $18.80 billion this year and Argentina seeing $4.67 billion. This trend will continue through 2018.

Meanwhile, Mexico lags behind both countries for retail ecommerce sales as a percentage of total retail sales—4.1% in Brazil and 1.6% in Argentina. While Brazil will remain on top by this metric throughout our forecast period, Mexico will tie with Argentina in 2016 and 2017—despite faster retail ecommerce sales increases in the latter through 2017—and will rise to second place in 2018, when it will surpass Argentina in growth (22.0% vs. 20.0%).

eMarketer bases all of its forecasts on a multipronged approach that focuses on both worldwide and local trends in the economy, technology and population, along with company-, product-, country- and demographic-specific trends, and trends in specific consumer behaviors. We analyze quantitative and qualitative data from a variety of research firms, government agencies, media outlets and company reports, weighting each piece of information based on methodology and soundness.

In addition, every element of each eMarketer forecast fits within the larger matrix of all its forecasts, with the same assumptions and general framework used to project figures in a wide variety of areas. Regular re-evaluation of each forecast means those assumptions and framework are constantly updated to reflect new market developments and other trends.