Overall business-to-consumer (B2C) ecommerce sales in Latin America will rise 22.1% this year to reach $62.56 billion, according to eMarketer’s latest estimates of ecommerce sales around the world. That growth rate will continue in the double digits through next year, but slow rapidly throughout the rest of our forecast period.
Brazil is tops when it comes to ecommerce sales in the region, accounting for $23.35 billion of the total sold in 2014. We expect B2C ecommerce sales in Mexico to reach $11.43 billion this year, and in Argentina, facing an embattled economy, sales will hit $5.46 billion.
But Argentina is where the growth is—at least in part because it has by far the smallest base of sales among countries eMarketer produces forecasts for in Latin America. Growth in Brazil and Mexico is still solidly in the double digits as well, however.
eMarketer bases all of its forecasts on a multipronged approach that focuses on both worldwide and local trends in the economy, technology and population, along with company-, product-, country- and demographic-specific trends, and trends in specific consumer behaviors. We analyze quantitative and qualitative data from a variety of research firms, government agencies, media outlets and company reports, weighting each piece of information based on methodology and soundness.
In addition, every element of each eMarketer forecast fits within the larger matrix of all of its forecasts, with the same assumptions and general framework used to project figures in a wide variety of areas. Regular re-evaluation of each forecast means those assumptions and framework are constantly updated to reflect new market developments and other trends.