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eMarketer expects that digital ad spending in India will surpass $1 billion in 2017, after hitting $933.6 million this year. eMarketer’s forecast puts mobile at 26.0% of digital spending this year.
Estimates from KPMG and Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce (FICCI) are more bullish on mobile and digital spending, though less so on mobile’s share this year. The firms estimate that advertisers in India will spend INR16.2 billion ($252.6 million) on mobile placements this year, or roughly 20% of the firms’ estimate for digital ad spending this year, INR81.1 billion ($1.26 billion).
KPMG and FICCI also expect digital to account for about 12.7% of total media ad spending in India this year—almost the exact share eMarketer predicts for 2016 as well.
The firms expect big changes by 2020, however, when digital will make up more than a quarter of ad spending in India. The big loser, they expect, will be print, which will drop from 40% of total media ad spending in 2015 to 29% by 2020. TV will hold almost steady, falling just 1 percentage point over the five-year period to 37% of the total. Notably, digital’s gains at print’s expense will not be enough to move the channel up from its current third-place position in the rankings, behind print and TV. Instead, TV and print will simply swap first and second place by 2020.
If 2016 shapes up like 2015, nearly half of digital spending in India will go toward search and display ads, not including video ads, according to KPMG and FICCI. Last year, the share for search and display (minus video) was 47%. Video specifically accounted for another 25% of digital ad spending in the country in 2015.
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