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In September, eMarketer predicted a 17.2% increase in US ecommerce sales during this year’s holiday shopping season, and a 3.3% increase in total retail sales. How has that projection held up, now that the shopping season is in full swing?
In the latest episode of eMarketer’s “Behind the Numbers” podcast, analyst Yory Wurmser sits down with host Marcus Johnson to discuss our estimates and what the latest data says about retail performance.
“As of now, [the September estimates] are in line with what actually happened,” said Wurmser. “When we came out with that growth figure, it was optimistic and it counted on having a pretty strong economy coming into the season, as well as the organic growth in ecommerce that we’ve been seeing in the past year. Both of those things occurred just as we’ve expected.”
As always, Amazon plays a key role in the marketplace. “Amazon has gone from about 20% in 2011 of total ecommerce to around 40% now,” said Wurmser. “Retailers clearly had to do something, so they entered this season with a strategy to counter Amazon with heavier discounts, earlier discounts and more promotions. It created a pretty fierce environment with a lot of discounting and probably drove a lot of people online, who might have shopped in-store.”
For a deeper dive into the holiday shopping season, tune in at 1:00 pm ET on Thursday, Dec. 8, to eMarketer's webinar: “Mid-Holiday Season Retail Update,” when Wurmser will dig into the data on retail performance over the key Thanksgiving weekend and what that may mean for the rest of the season. There's still time to sign up: Register for the webinar here.
You can subscribe to “Behind the Numbers” on iTunes, SoundCloud, Stitcher Radio or search for it on Google Play. If you love our podcast, be sure to share your ratings and reviews on iTunes to help other people know they should be listening, too!
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