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Every quarter, eMarketer publishes an update on the emerging trends and data in the digital video ecosystem. Here are four key takeaways.
1. Digital Video Continues to Outperform Display Ad Category
US digital video ad spending is expected to grow 12% in 2017 and 9% in 2018, according to a study from J.P. Morgan. Video is the only subcategory of display ad spending that is growing, as rich media, banner ads and sponsorship all shrink. Video spend is also growing at a faster rate than search, which will see increases in the 2% range in each of the next two years. Only mobile ad spending is growing faster than video. Furthermore, a rising percentage of US video ad dollars are being transacted programmatically. eMarketer expects US programmatic video ad spending to increase substantially next year over 2016 levels.
2. US Digital Video Viewership Will Increase Through at Least 2021
eMarketer estimates that the ranks of US digital video viewers will grow from 221.8 million to 239.2 million between 2017 and 2021, and the penetration rate among internet users will increase from 81.2% to 83.5%. As the number of US adult digital video viewers grows, the universe of adult pay TV viewers will continue to contract. In a comparative forecast from 2015 through 2020, eMarketer estimates the number of video viewers will have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.6%, while the number of pay TV viewers will decrease by a CAGR of 1.1%. As these curves follow their opposite trajectories, they are likely to meet around the 190 million mark—most likely early next decade.
3. Social and Messaging Platforms Are Vying for Video Ad Dollars
Facebook and Snapchat are pushing hard into areas such as live video, premium programming and connected TV. As Facebook continues to build its presence in live video, it is moving aggressively in other related areas. Snapchat is also aggressively pushing a videocentric strategy by working with a series of partners. Meanwhile, full-episode players are building on their strengths, venturing into new areas such as live TV.
4. The Number of Scripted TV Series Rose in 2016
A seven-year tracking study by FX Networks tallied US original scripted TV series on all major channels: broadcast, basic cable, pay cable and streaming services. The study found the number of series rose dramatically, from 210 in 2009 to 455 in 2016—an increase of 116.7%. The study also reflected the rise of streaming services as a major source of TV entertainment. While the overall number of series grew 8.1% in 2016, it was also the first year that only the digital video category saw increases. Every other distribution channel showed declines—the first time that happened simultaneously on all traditional venues over the course of the study.
Need more? Subscribers to eMarketer PRO can access the full quarterly update of video trends here: “Q1 2017 Digital Video Trends: Monetization, Audience, Platforms and Content.”
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