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Spending on digital display advertising in the US will total $27.05 billion in 2015, according to new figures from eMarketer, and the market is shifting toward the leading social networks. By 2017, when US digital display ad expenditure will reach $37.36 billion, Facebook and Twitter together will account for 33.7% of the market, up from 30.2% this year.
In 2015, Facebook’s US digital display ad revenues will reach $6.82 billion, just over one-quarter of the total market, and Twitter will take 5.0% share, increasing its digital display ad revenues to $1.34 billion. By 2017, Facebook’s portion will continue to creep upward, reaching 26.9%, and Twitter will take 6.8%.
Notably, Twitter will surpass Yahoo in total US digital display ad revenues for the first time in 2015, eMarketer estimates. Even though we project that Yahoo will see positive display ad growth this year for the first time since we started tracking the company’s ad revenues in 2009, its market share will continue a rapid decline, falling to 4.6% in 2015, down from 5.5% last year and 7.2% in 2013.
Throughout our forecast, Google will maintain its market position behind Facebook, but its share of US digital display ad revenues will dip from 13.7% in 2014 to 13.0% this year—and down to 11.1% by 2017.
Both Facebook’s and Twitter’s gains in the digital display market are driven by mobile advertising. For the first time in 2015, mobile will surpass desktop in display ad spending in the US, increasing from $9.65 billion in 2014 to $14.67 billion. Meanwhile, desktop display ad spend will decline in 2015, falling to $12.38 billion, from $12.56 billion last year.
This year, Facebook will close in on $5 billion in US mobile ad revenues alone, all of which appear in display formats. Likewise, nearly 90% of Twitter’s US ad revenues will come from mobile devices this year, totaling over $1.19 billion, also all in display formats. By 2017, Facebook’s US mobile ad revenues will grow more than 50% from this year, totaling about $7.53 billion, and Twitter will nearly double its US mobile ad revenues to $2.29 billion, closing in on Google in the mobile display category.
eMarketer bases all of its forecasts on a multipronged approach that focuses on both worldwide and local trends in the economy, technology and population, along with company-, product-, country- and demographic-specific trends, and trends in specific consumer behaviors. We analyze quantitative and qualitative data from a variety of research firms, government agencies, media outlets and company reports, weighting each piece of information based on methodology and soundness.
In addition, every element of each eMarketer forecast fits within the larger matrix of all its forecasts, with the same assumptions and general framework used to project figures in a wide variety of areas. Regular re-evaluation of each forecast means those assumptions and framework are constantly updated to reflect new market developments and other trends.
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