Facebook Mobile Ad Revenues to Near $30 Billion Next Year - eMarketer

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Facebook Mobile Ad Revenues to Near $30 Billion Next Year

Mobile continues to account for a growing share of Facebook’s ad dollars

October 31, 2016

Facebook, which is reporting earnings this week, continues to grow its ad revenues and user base across its properties.

Facebook Net Mobile Internet Ad Revenues Worldwide, 2015-2018 (billions and % change)

Overall, eMarketer estimates that worldwide ad revenues at Facebook will reach nearly $26 billion this year, up from $17.08 billion in 2015. We expect further growth to $33.76 billion in 2017.

A larger share of that total each year is coming from outside the US—54% in 2016—and mobile is accounting for more of the social network’s ad revenues as well.

This year, eMarketer predicts, Facebook will net $21.98 billion in mobile internet ad revenues from around the world, up 66.6% over 2015. Double-digit growth will continue through at least 2018, when the company will earn $37.98 billion in net mobile internet ad revenues.

“Facebook is still going pedal to the metal when it comes to building out its products and services,” said eMarketer principal analyst Debra Aho Williamson. “Its flagship service is still growing in every metric that we track, and its other services, such as Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger, are also performing well. Oculus has had some challenges gaining traction, but these are very early days for virtual reality in general.”

And despite some issues with how the company reported video ad engagement, its ad products are proving popular and effective for marketers.

“Facebook had a hiccup in September when news broke that it was overstating to marketers and advertisers the amount of time people spent watching video on its platform,” said Williamson. “Though eMarketer doesn’t believe the revelation will cause brands to pull back their Facebook spending, we expect that in the future there will be a push for more rigorous third-party measurement of ad performance on properties like Facebook.”

US Facebook Messenger Users and Penetration, 2014-2020 (millions and % of mobile phone users)

Facebook properties including Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger also continue to grow in popularity—and their prospects for monetization grow along with it. eMarketer estimates that Facebook messenger, for example, will reach more than two in five US mobile phone users by the end of this year, and more than half of that audience by 2020.

“Facebook is clearly getting closer to monetizing Messenger and WhatsApp,” said Williamson. “In August it made changes to WhatsApp’s privacy policy in preparation for allowing consumers to communicate more easily with businesses. And Messenger in September added buy buttons and native payments to the app.”


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