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Digital advertising worldwide is expected to top $146 billion in 2014, according to new figures from eMarketer, and Google and Facebook will maintain their positions as the top ad selling companies across the globe.
New in this forecast are net ad revenue estimates for Baidu and Alibaba—China’s leading ad sellers—which respectively will take 4.68% and 4.66% share of the worldwide digital ad market this year, representing the third- and fourth-largest market share among the companies included in our latest research. After Facebook, which will gain 2 full percentage points in share this year on the strength of its mobile revenue growth, Baidu and Alibaba will also have the next highest market share gains, while Google’s share dips from 31.55% to 31.10%.
In addition, we’ve added market share estimates for Tencent and SINA to this forecast, which collectively will take 1.21% of the worldwide digital ad market in 2014. The total market share for these four leading China-based ad sellers will reach 10.55% this year.
Alibaba and Baidu’s influence is even larger in the global mobile internet ad market, which overall we estimate will increase to $40.20 billion this year. Alibaba’s share of mobile internet ad dollars will accelerate from 1.6% in 2013 to 6.2% this year, while Baidu will nearly double its share from 2.6% to 5.1%.
Google and Facebook continue to dominate the global mobile ad market, collectively taking nearly 60% share, even in light of significant gains from China’s leading ad sellers. While Google is losing some share this year, the search giant is still far and away the leader, with more than 40% of the total mobile ad market worldwide. Facebook continues to gain ground, up to 18.4% this year.
Both Alibaba and Baidu have taken advantage of the rapidly expanding mobile ecosystem in China, where mobile internet ad spending grew 600.0% this year to nearly $6.4 billion, according to eMarketer, supplanting both the UK and Japan to become the second-largest mobile ad market worldwide. The US remains the leading market by far, with advertisers spending nearly $19 billion to reach the country’s consumers on mobile devices in 2014.
(For a complete look at the country-by-country rankings for total, digital and mobile ad spending from 2014 to 2018, visit eMarketer’s new Interactive Guide to Worldwide Ad Spending.)
Also new to this edition of our worldwide ad spending forecast are mobile ad revenue share estimates for Yahoo. The company first reported mobile revenues in October of this year, which are substantial enough to put it into the mix as competitor. Yahoo’s share of worldwide mobile ad spending is still small but significant, at 1.8%.
eMarketer bases all of its forecasts on a multipronged approach that focuses on both worldwide and local trends in the economy, technology and population, along with company-, product-, country- and demographic-specific trends, and trends in specific consumer behaviors. We analyze quantitative and qualitative data from a variety of research firms, government agencies, media outlets and company reports, weighting each piece of information based on methodology and soundness.
In addition, every element of each eMarketer forecast fits within the larger matrix of all its forecasts, with the same assumptions and general framework used to project figures in a wide variety of areas. Regular re-evaluation of each forecast means those assumptions and framework are constantly updated to reflect new market developments and other trends.
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