Apple's Outlook Across Devices - eMarketer

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Apple's Outlook Across Devices

iPhone share claws back even as iPads fall out of favor

October 24, 2016

Apple’s earnings outlook has been lackluster this year, largely thanks to a slowdown in sales of iPhones, a major revenue driver for the tech company. As Apple reports its fiscal Q4 earnings this week, how the iPhone 7 is doing will likely be top of mind.

US iPhone Users, 2014-2016 (millions, % change and % of total smartphone users)

Apple is holding tight to its share of smartphone users in the US, eMarketer estimates. More than 90 million people in the US own and use iPhones this year, representing 43.5% of the smartphone population. That’s slightly up from 43.3% in 2015 and 42.3% in 2014.

Smartphone owners are still most likely to have an Android-based handset: 52.0% have one this year, up from 51.7% in 2015.

Still, nearly 8 million more people will own iPhones this year than last year, eMarketer estimates, for growth of more than 9%. iPhones are also gaining share in the UK market—where they are also behind Android, but performing better than other options like Windows Phones.

Although the number of overall iPad users continues to increase, Apple has been losing share in the US tablet market. After falling below 50% for the first time in 2015, Apple’s share of the tablet market is expected to drop to 47.8% in 2016. By 2020, eMarketer estimates, 44.0% of tablet users in the US will be using an iPad.

Apple is also a relatively small player in the US over-the-top (OTT) TV market. Apple TV trails Google Chromecast and Roku, and its share of viewers is shrinking. This year, 11.3% of connected TV users will have an Apple TV, compared with 16.8% with a Chromecast and 16.4% with a Roku box.

Apple is also making moves in the mobile payments market.

“With the launch of iOS 10 and macOS Sierra, Apple is following through with its plans to extend Apple Pay to the web, as well as enhancing the capabilities of third-party mobile app developers to enable new payment experiences in iMessage and Siri,” said eMarketer senior analyst Bryan Yeager. “Though an abundance of research points to consumers not yet replacing their physical wallet with a mobile one, Apple continues to lay the groundwork in the US and around the world to make commerce more frictionless while maintaining a high degree of security. Cementing consumer trust that mobile payments are secure will be critical to mass market adoption.”

eMarketer estimates that US mobile proximity payments—which include payments made with a smartphone at the point of sale—will reach $27.67 billion in 2016. That figure will more than double in 2017, to $62.49 billion.

There will be 38.4 million US mobile proximity payments users in the US in 2016, eMarketer forecasts. That figure will rise to 50.8 million in 2017 and reach 76.0 million, or close to one-third of smartphone users, by 2020.

Peer-to-peer (P2P) mobile payments in the US are also on the rise. In 2016, close to one-quarter of US adults (45.8 million people) will make at least one P2P transaction on their mobile phone per month, totaling $59.42 billion. Mobile P2P payment apps like Venmo and Square Cash are taking advantage of Apple’s new iMessage apps and Siri SDKs in iOS 10 to make it easier to transfer funds to friends and family.

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