Look Out Cable: Time-shifting TV Is Accelerating

American consumers have plenty of alternatives to live TV, from TiVo and Apple TV to Hulu and YouTube. Content providers have kept some of the more popular programs off the Internet, so consumers have largely kept to “appointment TV.”

But their patience may be wearing thin. Internet use now rivals time spent with TV, according to Forrester Research data cited in Barclays Capital Internet Data Book August 2010. The idea of watching what they want when they want it is now ingrained in the consumer psych, more of a right than a privilege.

Several stories and research reports published in the past month seem to carry soothing statistics—at least for content providers—that the status quo is not threatened. In fact, a recent story in The New York Times seemed to assure that consumers are still hooked on TV—specifically premium cable content—and are not seriously thinking of cutting the cable cord any time soon. A New York Times/CBS News poll taken in August that found an overwhelming 88% of respondents paid for traditional TV service while just 15% had considered replacing their expensive cable habits with Internet video services like Hulu and YouTube.

Likewise, Comcast’s annual “TV Pulse Survey” showed 80% of consumers said they still regularly watch live primetime TV. Parks Associates’ “Digital Media Evolution II” reported that just 40% of US broadband households watched long-form video content online. And not to worry, content providers: most of it was just time-shifting from normally watched live TV shows.

But a new game’s afoot here: Comcast’s data also showed that 62% of consumers have watched primetime TV shows in time-shift mode in the past year and that use of time-shifting technology increased 61%, via DVRs, on-demand services, online or mobile. The top reason for time-shifting was a conflict with their personal schedules (79% of time-shifters). Programming conflicts claimed fewer respondents(63%).

Back in June, Nielsen’s Q1 2010 Three Screen report  showed the number of time-shifters grew to 94 million, up 18% in Q1 2010 compared with the same quarter in 2009. Although the amount of time Americans spent watching TV also increased by two hours per month during the same period, the average time spent multitasking with TV and a PC rose 9.8%, to 9 hours and 36 minutes per month.

Expect that shift to keep accelerating, as even more easy-to-use Internet-ready TVs reach stores—and living rooms. Some predictions:

• 65% of the 220 million flat-panel TVs sold in 2012 will be web-enabled and eventually connected to the Internet, according to investment firm Piper Jaffray .

• 98 million US broadband households will own web-enabled devices in 2014, for an installed base of 237 million devices, according to In-Stat .

• 57 million of all broadband households will be watching full-length online video programming on their TVs in 2014, In-Stat estimates.

Consumers already have the will to switch from cable and satellite providers. (The most notable part of the New York Times article was the pent-up animosity toward these providers, expressed by interviewees.) What they have largely lacked is the simple technology to make it happen. But the impending launch of Google TV, expected upgrades to Apple TV, Verizon’s recent announcement of an iPad app that streams live TV and many more efforts in the works, it looks as if the time is near—and inevitable.