We’ve recently revised our US Internet ad spending estimates. Here are just some of the reasons why, as I explained in a recent interview with Media Life Magazine.

How has your forecast changed from the most recent one?

Mr. Hallerman: Well the most recent one before was in April and at that point we didn’t have the second quarter results from any large portals and we’ve also since got the third quarter results from Google, as well as the first half of the year historical data from PricewaterhouseCoopers. So those are some factors why the overall ad spending number will be down compared to before.

In April it was up 4.5 percent for the U.S for this year, and now the projection is for it to be down 2.9 percent.

But when you consider that the first half of the year was down 5.3 percent, down 2.9 percent for the year represents the likelihood that the market has reached bottom and has started to slowly climb its way back, at least more so than other media.

What were the major factors that prompted you to adjust it downward?

Mr. Hallerman: Besides the ones I mentioned, it’s looking at what economic forecasters are saying, and it’s also looking, for example, at classified ads.

For many years those have been the third-biggest part of the online market. They aren’t sexy ads, but they are very dependent on employment ads and real estate, and those are two markets that aren’t coming back anytime quickly. So there are just different factors at play.

Many media economists have said that the recession bottomed out in second quarter. What are you seeing in third quarter in terms of online spending and how it compares to first half 2009 and Q3 2008?

Mr. Hallerman: Well, you know, third quarter last year was very good. But year over year, first quarter was down over last year by 5.2 percent, and quarter two was down by 5.4 percent. In that light, our projections are for third quarter to be down 0.8 percent and down 0.5 in the fourth quarter, both basically flat.

That’s the internet’s response to some shift in the economy. But we’re not going back to double-digit growth rates anytime soon.

Why will online start growing again next year when so many other categories will still be negative?

Mr. Hallerman: The problems with some media, most notably print and radio to an extent, were only exacerbated by the recession, but there were already problems–not only them as media businesses, but how marketers use them has been changing.

Looking at online, the old saying about the dollars following eyeballs, that’s only partially true online because there’s a lot of activity online, such as social networking, that’s very important but won’t be monetized very much in terms of advertising.

That’s the direction mobile service pricing is headed in the wake of Walmart’s announcement this week that the retail giant is partnering with TracFone to offer talk, text and mobile Web access plans for as low as $30/month. Unlimited plans will cost just $45. Both are being marketed under the Straight Talk banner and will be available exclusively at Walmart stores.

Needless to say, that’s pretty aggressive pricing, but consistent with the type of move we’ve seen repeatedly from pre-paid carriers over the past 12 to 18 months. For the first time in decades, US consumers are finding it sexier to save than spend, and Walmart’s move can been seen as an effort to capitalize on the growing sense of thrift in the face of the recession. Naturally, there are some trade-offs, such as a limited handset selection, but for low prices, you can’t have everything.

The question is: will the major US carriers follow suit? Tim Deluca-Smith, a fellow member of the Mobile Monday community, has a smart response with a European perspective at the Wireless Informatics Forum. MediaPost likewise features some good coverage of the announcement here.

I’m inclined to agree that Walmart might steal away a few customers from the Verizons and AT&Ts of the world, and might cause the majors to offer some additional deals or incentives to keep the faithful happy, but they’re not likely to engage in an all-out pricing war. I think Tim is spot-on in his analysis that the smaller regional carriers will feel the brunt of Walmart’s Straight Talk express first.

Consumer confidence rises in France, Germany and Italy.

In Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, the forward-looking consumer climate assessment produced by GfK registered a total of 4.3 points for October, up from 3.8 points the previous month. “Consumer perceptions are evidently being increasingly shaped by the recognition that the ‘worst’ is behind them and they can now look to the future with greater optimism,” the company said. The readout on economic expectations also rose to 3.4 points in September, compared with –7.5 points in August, while income expectations almost doubled to 16 points, and the “likelihood to buy” grew from 31.1 points to 36.5 points.

The UK is noticeably absent from the list of countries where the economic climate is clearly brightening. Still, UK-based advertisers operating throughout the continent may start to breathe easier as European confidence rebounds.