Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Looking Beyond the Staggering Mobile Stats in the BRIC Countries
My latest report – on wireless usage and advertising trends in the BRIC countries (Brazil / Russia / India / China) – launches today. Given their large populations, some of the numbers are understandably eye-popping. The full report is available here for Total Access subscribers, but here are a few stats that stand out:
- Over 200 million mobile subscribers in both Brazil and Russia by 2014
- 853 million subscribers in India by 2014
- 1.3 billion (yes billion) subscribers and 957 million mobile Internet users in China by 2014
The China stats highlight a key trend I identify in the report, namely that mobile subscriber growth is slowing, but mobile Internet user growth is speeding up. The days of triple-digit subscriber growth are long past. And as subscriber bases solidify, it is now the mobile Internet user populations that are increasing rapidly, albeit from small bases.
They also reveal the degree to which the adage “Everything is bigger in Texas” applies equally to China. Staggering as it may to conceptualize, there will be more mobile Internet users in China in 2010 than the entire population of the US.
Granted, these mobile Internet users do not currently monetize as well as smaller mobile audiences in, say, the US, so aggregate mobile advertising spending levels in China are still low relative to the size of the mobile Internet user base. Nevertheless, the growth trend is significant, and China’s mobile subscribers and Internet users will generate by far the highest advertising spending among the BRIC nations ($223.2 million in 2010, more than tripling to $699.9 million in 2012).
It’s easy to get caught up in the lure of big numbers and overlook the reality on the ground. The fact is that even as a rising number of consumers are purchasing smartphones, many mobile users across the BRIC footprint will remain on less sophisticated devices and legacy second-generation mobile networks well into the middle of the decade.
For marketers interested in reaching the bulk of BRIC mobile consumers today, this means emphasizing messaging campaigns and reserving flashier mobile sites and applications for the small vanguard of smartphone users. By the same token, marketers should also be prepared for changing behaviors as network speeds increase and mobile consumers graduate to more expensive devices and data services.
Social comments and analytics for this post…
This post was mentioned on Twitter by eMarketer: Looking Beyond the Staggering Mobile Stats in China, India, Brazil, and Russia – http://bit.ly/dhaLMI by @noahelkin…
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[...] an easy thing to conceptualize indeed, but according to eMarketer there will be more mobile Internet users in China than the entire population of the US by the end [...]
INteresting stats.
mobile penetration in Bric region is quite inspiring
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In some articles on this report I saw the following statement from you: ““Given the high concentration of SMS usage, especially relative to the low level of mobile Internet usage in all the BRIC countries but China, messaging-based campaigns will provide marketers with the widest exposure to mobile consumers,” said Mr. Elkin.”
What are the basis for the statement/conclusion that mobile Internet usage is low in Russia? (which is – for example – #1 in world by Opera Mini usage)
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[...] of total population) are increasingly technology-savvy. Total number of mobile users in Brazil is likely to gross over 200 million by 2014, a CAGR of 4.1 %. In February 2010 alone, Brazil added almost 1.2 million mobile users – [...]
[...] vez mais fluentes em tecnologia. O total de usuários de telefones celulares no Brasil parece que vai ultrapassar 200 milhões em 2014, uma taxa composta de crescimento anual (CAGR) de 4,1%. Apenas em fevereiro de 2010, o Brasil teve [...]
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But with multiple studies showing month on month exponential growth in mobile web user numbers and eMarketer analysts predicting that there will be more mobile internet users in China by the end of t… it’s already looking like the technology adoption curve to beat them [Webmaster
]
[...] users reached 233 million, accounted for 60.8 percent of the total number of Internet users.” eMarketer predicts there will be more mobile Internet users in China at the end of 2010 than there are people [...]