Gains in Online Magazine & Newspaper Ad Spending Will Not Offset Print Losses

In conjunction with the TV and major media ad spending estimates we released Tuesday, here’s a closer look at eMarketer’s new US magazine and newspaper ad spending forecasts.

In December 2010, eMarketer estimated that online ad spending passed newspaper ad spending for the first time that year. eMarketer estimates print ad spending at US newspapers will fall 6% to $21.4 billion in 2011, after revenues shrunk 8.2% in 2010. If there’s a bright side for the newspaper industry, it’s that massive losses to print newspaper ad spending will taper off in 2011 and continue to get smaller. In 2014 and 2015 spending will drop just 1% each year.

Between 2009 and 2015, eMarketer estimates print newspaper ad revenues will drop by a total of $5 billion. Over the same period, newspapers’ share of total major media ad spending will fall from 16.9% to 11.4%, the greatest loss in share of any medium.

eMarketer forms its forecast through a meta-analysis of data aggregated from research firms and other organizations that track advertising spending at magazines and newspapers. eMarketer benchmarks its US newspaper ad spending projections against data from the Newspaper Association of America (NAA), for which the last full year measured was 2010. Newspaper spending includes classified, national and retail.

Print magazines, like newspapers, will see continuing declines through 2015. Overall US advertising revenues at magazines fell 2.9% to $17 billion in 2010, down from $17.5 billion in 2009, according to eMarketer.

As with newspapers, the biggest losses for magazines came on the print side. eMarketer estimates print ad revenues at magazines fell 5% to $14.7 billion in 2010, down from $15.5 billion in 2009. This year, eMarketer estimates print revenues will fall 5.6% to $13.9 billion.

Gains in online revenues, which will rise from $2 billion in 2009 to an estimated $3.1 billion in 2015, will fail to offset the losses in print—with total US ad revenues at magazines expected to drop to $14.7 billion in 2015.

eMarketer’s magazine ad spending projections are based a meta-analysis of data gathered from over a dozen sources, including Myers Publishing, PricewaterhouseCoopers, ZenithOptimedia, the Publishers Information Bureau and the US Census. eMarketer’s print magazine spending figures include both consumer and business publications. You see a comparative estimate of eMarketer’s forecast alongside projections from other firms below.

For more information on eMarketer’s coverage of advertising spending, you can read the press release here.