Will the Torch Light the Wandering Eyes of BlackBerry Users?

BlackBerry owns a commanding 42% share of US smartphone subscribers (and a 9% share of the total subscriber population), according to July data from comScore, and globally, BlackBerry shipments rose 45% from Q1 2009 to Q1 2010. So why has the introduction of its newest smartphone, the Torch, and version 6 of its proprietary operating system been described as a make-or-break moment for BlackBerry?

First off, Research In Motion (RIM) may hold the lead among US smartphone subscribers, but it certainly isn’t gaining share. At best, RIM is managing to tread water while other platforms, most notably Android, surge ahead. Globally, Canalys projects 169% year-over-year growth in Android smartphone shipments in 2010 and 100% year-over-year growth in total market share. RIM, by contrast, is forecast to lose six points of market share.

Second, and perhaps more worrisome for RIM, is BlackBerry users’ lack of loyalty to the platform. In findings released this week, Nielsen revealed that only 42% of current BlackBerry owners would opt for another BlackBerry as their next smartphone, while 29% want an iPhone and 21% have their eyes on an Android device.

Now, had Nielsen’s survey sample included only dedicated business users, who constitute the core of the BlackBerry faithful, the results might have looked somewhat different. But that highlights the very challenge BlackBerry faces in the market today: with more mobile users, including both consumers and business users, consolidating their communication, media consumption and social networking activities on a single device, the line between business and personal is rapidly eroding. And that means smartphones need to be really good at many things, not just really good for e-mail, which has historically been BlackBerry’s strong suit.

When the competition includes the iPhone 4, HTC EVO 4G, Motorola Droid X, Samsung Galaxy S and others in the annoyingly termed “superphone” class, BlackBerry devices seem desperately short on the “wow” factor: good enough for the faithful, but not appealing enough to attract new users to the fold. That was the consensus among analysts polled by FierceWireless. Leading tech journalists had a mixed reaction, but at best, RIM seems to have caught up with its rivals. There are few voices to suggest this latest BlackBerry surpasses the other leading smartphones on the market.

It will be interesting to watch whether the Torch and OS6 light the way as a new direction for RIM or whether the BlackBerry platform will continue to suffer from the perception that it is stagnating in the face of increasingly fierce competition in the smartphone market.