Current trends in US Internet advertising indicate far more resilience than in other media. If nothing else, the considerable gap between the amount of time people spend online and the amount of money advertisers spend there is likely to be narrowed. In that light, a notable benchmark will be reached in 2009, when 10% of all US ad dollars will go to the Internet. Other factors contributing to online ad spending gains through 2012 include the rise of online ad networks and the expansion of Internet video advertising into prime time.
However, in late February 2008, after comScore reported reduced paid clicks for Google in January, an uproar developed in the mainstream business media and among investment bank analysts. While the data point for that single month generated major news articles in the Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, BusinessWeek and other publications, the attention was not really about Google and reduced paid clicks. It was about fear—after all, if mighty Google is not immune to the weak economy, then the whole Internet ad industry could also face a major shakeout.
Perspective is very important here. Multiple points of data paint a fuller and less alarmist picture.
Key Questions
How much would a recession shape US Internet ad spending?
Why might advertisers shift budgets to the Internet?
What are the US ad revenue trends among the Big Four portals?
Are any online ad formats truly recession-proof?
What forces will support growth in total media ad spending?
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