US retail e-commerce sales (excluding travel) will total $132 billion in 2009, down 0.4% from 2008. Assuming the recession ends this year, as many economists predict, eMarketer forecasts online sales will begin to rebound in 2010 and hit full stride in 2011.
The Retail E-Commerce Forecast report tracks the trends that will influence online sales in the near and far future.
Web research has become a priority for value shoppers in today’s recession. Currently 86% of Internet users are online shoppers—they browse, research and compare products on the Internet, but do not necessarily buy online. As a result, though often ignored, store sales influenced by online research are three times higher than e-commerce sales.
Even so, many consumers opt to buy online for convenience, price and broad product selection. Over 80% of online shoppers are also online buyers.
Even after a decade, some online consumers still refrain from buying online due to security and privacy concerns or the inability to touch and feel products. But Web retailers are adding new content and features to overcome these hurdles.
Key questions the “Retail E-Commerce Forecast” report answers:
- What is the forecast for retail e-commerce and online travel sales?
- How does the recession impact online sales and shopping habits?
- What percent of online consumers research and buy products on the Internet?
- What is the influence of online research on store sales?
- And many others…
eMarketer Reports—On Target and Up to Date
The Retail E-Commerce Forecast report aggregates the latest data from marketing and communications researchers with eMarketer analysis to provide the information you need to make quick, well-informed business decisions.
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US retail e-commerce sales (excluding travel) will total $132 billion in 2009, down 0.4% from 2008. Assuming the recession ends this year, as many economists predict, eMarketer forecasts online sales will begin to rebound in 2010 and hit full stride in 2011.
Executive Summary
US B2C E-Commerce Sales, by Segment, 2008-2013 (billions and % change)
Key Questions
The eMarketer View
Key eMarketer Numbers—US Retail E-Commerce Forecast
B2C E-Commerce Sales
US B2C E-Commerce Sales, by Segment, 2008-2013 (billions and % change)
US Retail E-Commerce Forecast Model
US Retail E-Commerce Forecast Model, 2008-2013
US Online Shopper and Buyer Definitions, 2009
Retail E-Commerce Sales
US Retail E-Commerce Sales, 2008-2013 (billions and % change)
Comparative Estimates: US Retail E-Commerce Sales, 2008-2013 (billions)
US Retail E-Commerce Sales, 2002-2007 & 2008-2013 (CAGR)
US Total Retail Sales Growth vs. Retail E-Commerce Sales Growth, 2002-2008 (% change)
US Retail E-Commerce Sales As a Percent of Total Retail Sales, 2002-2008
Online Shoppers
US Online Shoppers and Penetration, 2008-2013 (millions and % of Internet users)
US Online Buyer's Online Shopping Behavior due to the Current Economy, February-March 2009 (% of respondents)
Importance of the Internet for Making Buying Decisions* According to US Internet Users, April 2009 (% of respondents)
Likelihood of US Internet Users Researching Online Before Making an Offline Purchase, April 2009 (% of respondents)
US Retail Sales, by Channel, 2007-2012 (millions)
Reasons that US Online Buyers Check Online Retail Sites Before Shopping in Stores, December 2008 (% of respondents)
Sources Used to Evaluate Products for Purchase According to US Internet Users, October 2008 (% of respondents)
Online Buyers
US Online Buyers and Penetration, 2008-2013 (millions and % of Internet users)
Comparative Estimates: US Online Buyers, 2007-2010 (% of Internet users)
Reasons that US Online Buyers Purchased from a Retailer's Website Instead of in a Store, December 2008 (% of respondents)
Reasons that US Internet Users Prefer to Purchase Online vs. in a Store, by Gender, October 2008 (% of respondents)
Leading Reasons that US Internet Users Do Not Plan to Do More Shopping Online this Holiday Season, 2008 (% of respondents)
US Online Buyers As a Percent of Online Shoppers, 2008-2013
Average Annual Retail E-Commerce Sales per US Online Buyer*, 2008-2013
Online Travel
US Online Leisure/Unmanaged Business Travel Sales, 2008-2013 (billions and % change)
US Online Leisure/Unmanaged Business Travel Sales As a Percent of Total Travel Sales, 2006-2010
US Online Leisure/Unmanaged Business Travel Sales As a Percent of B2C E-Commerce Sales*, 2008-2013 (billions and % change)
Conclusion
Endnotes
104450
Comparative Estimates: US Retail E-Commerce Sales, 2008-2013 (billions)
104458
Comparative Estimates: US Online Buyers, 2007-2010 (% of Internet users)
104463
Key eMarketer Numbers—US Retail E-Commerce Forecast
104465
US Retail E-Commerce Forecast Model, 2008-2013
104468 | 104469 | 104473 | 104475
US Retail E-Commerce Sales, 2008-2013 (billions and % change)
US Retail E-Commerce Sales, 2002-2007 & 2008-2013 (CAGR)
Average Annual Retail E-Commerce Sales per US Online Buyer*, 2008-2013
US B2C E-Commerce Sales, by Segment, 2008-2013 (billions and % change)
104472
US Online Buyers As a Percent of Online Shoppers, 2008-2013
104476
US Online Leisure/Unmanaged Business Travel Sales As a Percent of B2C E-Commerce Sales*, 2008-2013 (billions and % change)
Related Information and Links
Related Links
Contact
Report Contributors
US retail e-commerce sales (excluding travel) will total $132 billion in 2009, down 0.4% from 2008. Assuming the recession ends this year, as many economists predict, eMarketer forecasts online sales will begin to rebound in 2010 and hit full stride in 2011.
Citi Investment Research
comScore Inc.
eMarketer
ForeSee Results
Forrester Research
Harris Interactive
JPMorgan
Nielsen Online
Pew Internet & American Life Project
PhoCusWright Inc.
PriceGrabber.com
the e-tailing group
Thomas Weisel Partners
US Department of Commerce
USC Annenberg School Center for the Digital Future