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Is the iPad Market Saturated?

US iPad user gains to drop drastically this year

October 16, 2014 | Mobile

Growth in the number of US iPad users was still nearly 30% last year, but this will plummet to 5.7% this year and continue dropping—quickly—through 2018, according to eMarketer’s latest tablet usage forecast.

US iPad Users and Penetration, 2013-2018

As of the end of this year, we expect 23.9% of the US population to use an iPad at least once per month—including people who own their own as well as those who use a friend’s or family member’s on a regular basis. eMarketer believes there is a significant amount of iPad-sharing (and tablet-sharing in general) across households.

And that penetration level won’t rise much in coming years. It will rest under one-quarter of the total population and just over three in 10 internet users through 2018.

Apple does still claim a majority of the country’s tablet users, though its share of the total is falling.

US Tablet Users and Penetration, 2013-2018 (millions, % of internet users and % of population)

Overall, eMarketer estimates, 147.1 million people in the US will use a tablet of any kind at least monthly this year.

eMarketer bases all of its forecasts on a multipronged approach that focuses on both worldwide and local trends in the economy, technology and population, along with company-, product-, country- and demographic-specific trends, and trends in specific consumer behaviors. We analyze quantitative and qualitative data from a variety of research firms, government agencies, media outlets and company reports, weighting each piece of information based on methodology and soundness.

In addition, every element of each eMarketer forecast fits within the larger matrix of all its forecasts, with the same assumptions and general framework used to project figures in a wide variety of areas. Regular re-evaluation of each forecast means those assumptions and framework are constantly updated to reflect new market developments and other trends.

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