Outlays to pass $1 billion in 2016
Norway is one of the world’s most advanced digital cultures, with 94% of residents using the internet at least once per month in 2013, eMarketer estimates. In 2014, internet penetration is expected to stabilize at 95% of the population. In addition, 58% of residents will have a smartphone this year. That share is currently rising at 10 percentage points annually.
Norway’s advertisers were quick to embrace advertising on the web, and on mobile platforms. But there is still much potential for expansion. eMarketer has forecast that Norway’s digital advertising market will grow by 6.8% in 2013, to $846.1 million, and pass $1 billion in 2016.
eMarketer benchmarks its Norway digital ad spending projections against IRM Norway. Our figures include all formats of advertising that appear on computers, mobile phones and tablets, but exclude messaging-based ads.
Several other research firms have also published estimates for Norwegian digital ad spending in 2013 and at least one subsequent year. Estimates vary somewhat widely due to different inclusions.
For example, one estimate for 2013 spending, from PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), is for about $930 million, or nearly 10% higher than eMarketer’s prediction. This may be because PwC includes not just classifieds, display, mobile, search and video in its calculations, but also a category called “other,” which is not clearly defined. However, PwC figures do exclude agency commissions and production costs—which tend to inflate total ad spending figures.
Looking ahead to 2014 and 2015, there’s little agreement on just how fast Norway’s digital ad marketplace is developing. eMarketer's forecast puts the increases in spending during the next two years marginally higher than this year, at 7.0%, though we foresee a gradual decline in annual gains after that. According to GroupM, the growth rate will be cut by more than half in 2014, to just 4.0%. PwC also anticipates a sharp drop in growth next year, followed by further modest falls. ZenithOptimedia—which, like PwC, has indicated growth in the double digits in 2013—sees only a slight shrinkage next year, and a very strong 2015, with the rate of expansion surpassing any other year in the forecast period.
Such variations highlight the fact that even in well developed markets with a reasonable expectation of economic stability, research firms often see quite different tendencies, and may disagree on what’s ahead. Curiously, there is much more unanimity about total media ad spending in Norway—several sources have put its value at $2.8 billion for this year, and expect virtually no change in 2014.
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