eMarketer estimates that digital retail sales growth in Mexico hovered around 50% during the past two years, bringing the digital sales value of products or services outside the travel category up to $3.00 billion in 2013. An additional 20.0% improvement will push the total to $3.60 billion in 2014, a tiny figure compared with forecasts for the US ($300.64 billion), China ($249.38 billion) or even Brazil ($13.37 billion).
At current levels, retail ecommerce sales represent 31.5% of all business-to-consumer (B2C) sales in Mexico. By that metric, the country is also lagging worldwide trends.
Digital travel sales and purchases of intangible goods are the categories that typically kick-start B2C ecommerce uptake in new markets. As time goes by and digital purchasing grows, consumption tends to gravitate more toward retail categories. In Russia, for example, eMarketer forecasts that retail ecommerce sales will represent 83.0% of all digital purchases in 2014. And in other landmark markets like China, India and the US, retail will take 78.8%, 33.0% and 67.4% of B2C ecommerce sales, respectively.
Factors such as the heavily underbanked population, low digital storefront adoption on the retailer side and relatively frail distribution chains will continue to hamper retail ecommerce uptake in Mexico, which will represent just 33.8% of all B2C ecommerce sales in 2017.
On the brighter side, however, we expect retail ecommerce sales to register a 20.6% compound annual growth rate between 2012 and 2017. Such growth will be the third fastest among the countries for which we produce forecasts, trailing China (56.5%) and India (43.8%).
eMarketer bases all of our forecasts on a multipronged approach that focuses on both worldwide and local trends in the economy, technology and population, along with company-, product-, country- and demographic-specific trends, and trends in specific consumer behaviors. We analyze quantitative and qualitative data from a variety of research firms, government agencies, media outlets and company reports, weighting each piece of information based on methodology and soundness.
In addition, every element of each eMarketer forecast fits within the larger matrix of all our forecasts, with the same assumptions and general framework used to project figures in a wide variety of areas. Regular re-evaluation of each forecast means those assumptions and framework are constantly updated to reflect new market developments and other trends.
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