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Digital ad spending worldwide will reach $170.85 billion in 2015, according to new estimates from eMarketer, and for the first time we've broken out global search ad spending figures. This year, search ads will account for $81.59 billion worldwide, an increase of 16.2% over 2014. By 2019, search ad spending will reach $130.58 billion globally, still growing at nearly 10% year over year.
Google is still by far the dominant player in search, and we estimate the company will see 15.7% search ad revenue growth this year, increasing to $44.46 billion worldwide. That figure would account for 54.5% share in 2015. Meanwhile, Baidu is reaping the benefits of Google's ban in China—and of course, a massive and growing internet user population—increasing its share to 8.8% of search ad spending globally this year, up from 7.6% in 2014.
Baidu's market share is a testament to the growth and influence of China's digital ad market on the global stage. Search advertising spending in China will total $14.90 billion this year, up 32.8% from 2014, which accounts for 18.2% of all search spending worldwide. By comparison, the US search ad market will reach $25.66 billion this year.
A key driver of Baidu's success in China—as well as Sohu, another leading player in the Chinese market—has been very strong ecommerce growth, not only in the major cities like Beijing or Shanghai, but also in third- and fourth-tier cities. Across the country, consumers are increasingly buying retail products online, and there's a strong use case for search and discovery among these new online buyers.
Microsoft and Yahoo are still key players on the world stage, but combined will own just 6.5% of the global search ad market in 2015. Bing saw strong growth in 2014, translating to an increase in share from 3.7% to 4.2% in 2014. The company is expected to maintain that same level in 2015.
Meanwhile, Yahoo's slide is beginning to slow as the company is expected to see a 6.9% uptick in search revenue growth this year, following 4.8% growth in 2014. Globally, Yahoo will take 2.3% share of the search market in 2015, dipping from 2.5% in 2014.
eMarketer bases all of its forecasts on a multipronged approach that focuses on both worldwide and local trends in the economy, technology and population, along with company-, product-, country- and demographic-specific trends, and trends in specific consumer behaviors. We analyze quantitative and qualitative data from a variety of research firms, government agencies, media outlets and company reports, weighting each piece of information based on methodology and soundness.
In addition, every element of each eMarketer forecast fits within the larger matrix of all its forecasts, with the same assumptions and general framework used to project figures in a wide variety of areas. Regular re-evaluation of each forecast means those assumptions and framework are constantly updated to reflect new market developments and other trends.
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