Although both newspaper and magazine publishers are encouraged by positive trends in device adoption and consumer behavior, the continued growth of digital ad revenues has not yet made up for declines in print ad revenue for newspapers.
But it has for magazines.
According to new estimates from eMarketer, US ad revenue growth at magazines is expected to increase from 1.9% in 2011 to 2.6% this year, as overall revenue reaches $18.33 billion. Print ad revenues at magazines will increase marginally to $15.19 billion in 2012 from $15.15 billion in 2011, according to eMarketer. In the same period, digital ad revenues are expected to grow to $3.14 billion from $2.72 billion.
The new forecast for US magazine ad revenue is down slightly from eMarketer’s January estimate, which projected revenues would reach $18.65 billion by the end of 2012. The revision reflects slower growth than previously expected.
At newspapers, the picture isn’t quite as rosy. US newspaper print ad revenues are expected to drop significantly in the coming years, slipping to $16.4 billion in 2016 from $19.14 billion in 2012. Digital revenues, which include all digital platforms, will edge up to $4 billion from $3.4 billion over the same time period, so they will not cover losses from print.
eMarketer projected in January that US newspaper ad spending would reach $23.1 billion this year. The new forecast has also been revised slightly downward based on faster-than-expected declines reported by eMarketer’s benchmark source, the Newspaper Association of America, for which the last full year measured was 2011. The newspaper figures include classifieds and national and retail advertisements.
eMarketer forms its estimates of magazine and newspaper ad revenues through an analysis of various elements related to the newspaper and magazine ad spending market, including macro-level economic conditions; historical trends of the advertising market; historical trends of each medium in relation to other media; reported revenues from major ad publishers; estimates from other research firms; consumer media consumption trends; and eMarketer interviews with executives at ad agencies, brands, media publishers and other industry leaders.
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Check out today’s other articles, “Elections, Olympics and Digital Spending Boost Total Media Ad Gains” and “Airlines Take Mobile Services Beyond Check-In.”
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