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Markets in Asia-Pacific are among those driving Twitter user growth worldwide, with Indonesia and India topping this year’s rankings for projected user gains, eMarketer estimates. Those two countries are already the second- and third-largest Twitter markets in the region, after Japan, which both are expected to surpass in absolute numbers over the next couple years.
These top three Twitter markets, taken together, account for the vast majority of users in Asia-Pacific—due in part to the microblogging service’s blanket ban in China. This year, Japan will account for 26.1% of Twitter users in the region, with nearly one-quarter more in India and 20.5% in Indonesia. eMarketer estimates that Asia-Pacific as a whole will account for more Twitter users worldwide than any other region, even in spite of China’s ban. Nearly one-third of Twitter users globally will call Asia-Pacific home this year, vs. fewer than one-quarter in No. 2 regional market North America.
Twitter penetration rates as a percentage of the internet population are highest in Japan, Indonesia and South Korea, though even in these relatively penetrated markets fewer than one in five web users is a Twitter user. As a share of the population in each country, penetration is significantly lower, with a high of 15.3% in Japan compared with a low of just 1.5% in India.
But the smaller group of social network users in these Asia-Pacific markets has warmed to the service more. Nearly two in five social network users in Japan use Twitter at least monthly, on the high end, and even in lowest-ranked India, 15.0% of social networkers are on Twitter.
eMarketer bases all of its forecasts on a multipronged approach that focuses on both worldwide and local trends in the economy, technology and population, along with company-, product-, country- and demographic-specific trends, and trends in specific consumer behaviors. We analyze quantitative and qualitative data from a variety of research firms, government agencies, media outlets and company reports, weighting each piece of information based on methodology and soundness.
In addition, every element of each eMarketer forecast fits within the larger matrix of all of its forecasts, with the same assumptions and general framework used to project figures in a wide variety of areas. Regular re-evaluation of each forecast means those assumptions and framework are constantly updated to reflect new market developments and other trends.
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