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India remains Facebook’s runaway growth story in Asia-Pacific, according to eMarketer’s latest forecast for usage of the social network giant.
This year, eMarketer predicts, the country will enjoy 40.0% growth in Facebook users—the most of any market in the world and more than twice as quickly as regional second-place Indonesia. Only those markets—along with an “other” category that includes many Southeast Asian countries as well as tiny island nations—will grow at double-digit rates in the coming years. Usage increases in Australia, South Korea and Japan will be more modest.
And India’s rapid growth is not due to a small installed base of Facebook users. Already, by the end of 2013, nearly 78 million people in the country logged in to the site at least monthly. By the end of 2018, more than half a billion people in Asia-Pacific will use Facebook each month.
These figures account for no Facebook usage in China, where the site is officially banned.
eMarketer bases all of its forecasts on a multipronged approach that focuses on both worldwide and local trends in the economy, technology and population, along with company-, product-, country- and demographic-specific trends, and trends in specific consumer behaviors. We analyze quantitative and qualitative data from a variety of research firms, government agencies, media outlets and company reports, weighting each piece of information based on methodology and soundness.
In addition, every element of each eMarketer forecast fits within the larger matrix of all of its forecasts, with the same assumptions and general framework used to project figures in a wide variety of areas. Regular re-evaluation of each forecast means those assumptions and framework are constantly updated to reflect new market developments and other trends.
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