Facebook usage will rise just 3.1% in Canada this year, where nearly 94% of social network users and almost half the total population already use the largest social site in the world, eMarketer estimates.
That represents a drop in growth from 4.9% in 2012, when Facebook usage was already fairly mature. Increases in user numbers will continue to drop, to 2.9% next year and 2.5% by 2017. That year, eMarketer expects, 18.5 million Canadian residents of any age to use Facebook at least monthly from any device.
Facebook penetration is expected to drop slightly as a share of social network users, but increase as a share of internet users—indicating that more internet users will become social networkers in coming years, and the vast majority will use Facebook.
eMarketer estimates the total number of social network users in the country will reach 17.7 million this year, and 19.9 million by 2017.
eMarketer bases all of our forecasts on a multipronged approach that focuses on both worldwide and local trends in the economy, technology and population along with company-, product-, country- and demographic-specific trends as well as trends in specific consumer behaviors. We analyze quantitative and qualitative data from a variety of research firms, government agencies, media outlets and company reports, weighting each piece of information based on methodology and soundness.
Additionally, every element of each eMarketer forecast fits within the larger matrix of all our forecasts, with the same assumptions and general framework used to project figures in a wide variety of areas. Regular re-evaluation of each forecast means those assumptions and framework are constantly updated to reflect new market developments and other trends.
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