The US mobile ad market is coalescing around two major players, based on eMarketer’s latest estimates of US digital ad spending. Google, which will take in nearly half of all net US mobile internet ad revenues this year, is by far the dominant firm in the space—and Facebook, while far behind, is also well ahead of other competitors.
eMarketer estimates that 48.2% of net US mobile internet ad revenues will go to Google this year, down a few points from 2012 but set to rise back above the 50% mark by 2015. Facebook, meanwhile, has grabbed a significant share of the market in short order: In 2011, the social network offered no mobile ads at all, and in its first year of selling them had already begun to take in nearly 10% of all mobile internet ad revenues in the US. eMarketer projects that Facebook’s aggressive mobile revenue growth puts the company on track to capture a 15.3% share of the market this year.
That share is expected to decline somewhat by 2015, as Google grows quickly. Other firms, including YP, Pandora and Twitter are expected to see their shares of the US mobile internet ad market shift only slightly, and eMarketer expects other firms to take a combined one in five mobile US ad dollars for the foreseeable future.
The mix is significantly different when it comes to overall US digital ad revenues, which include both mobile ads as well as advertising that appears on desktop and laptop computers and other connected devices. Google still takes the greatest share, at 41.1% this year, and is expected to solidify its hold. eMarketer expects Yahoo! to come in ahead of Facebook for the last time this year, with 7.7% of net US digital ad revenues. By the end of the forecast period, Facebook will account for 8.3% of net US digital ad revenues.
eMarketer forms its estimates of company ad revenues based on the analysis of reported revenues from company releases; estimates from other research firms; Facebook usage trends; and eMarketer interviews with executives at ad agencies, brands, online ad publishers and other industry leaders.
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