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Proximity mobile payments are not yet very popular in the US—eMarketer estimates that such point-of-sale payments using a mobile phone as a payment device, whether via near-field communications or other contactless technology, will total just $640 million this year. But that’s an increase of 283% over last year’s even smaller base, and a number that will rise a further 234% by the end of next year.
By 2016, proximity mobile payments will have exploded in the US, and total transaction value will hit $62.24 billion.
These estimates are based on the following key assumptions:
Although the US market holds significant promise in terms of the sheer volume of mobile payment transactions, it is likewise characterized by fragmentation. eMarketer believes the number and scope of the different mobile payment solutions currently available or preparing for launch in the next six to 12 months will have contradictory effects on the market. On the one hand, more solutions, and the media attention they bring to the mobile payments segment in general, will raise awareness for consumers and merchants. On the other, the sheer number of choices will present a challenge for both groups, but for merchants in particular, who may incur significant costs in choosing one solution over another, especially in cases where a solution entails new point-of-sale hardware.
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