Mobile user populations in Brazil, Russia, India and China have stabilized, and growth is now focused on the mobile internet and mobile ad spending.
Overall spending levels in India, Russia and Brazil are still low, but the Chinese market will see over $700 billion in mobile ad spending next year. By 2015, eMarketer predicts, advertisers in China will spend nearly $1.4 billion on mobile.
eMarketer’s estimates of mobile ad spending include display, search and messaging-based formats and are based on a meta-analysis of data from several firms as well as overall trends in advertising and mobile markets.
Spending growth this year will be highest in Brazil and China, where it will more than double. Between 2012 and 2015, eMarketer expects strong, double-digit annual growth in all four countries. Growth rates will start to taper off as these markets mature.
Ad spending in BRIC is following either already high or fast-growing mobile internet usage in those countries. In China, eMarketer estimates nearly half of mobile phone users, or 371.2 million people, will use the mobile web at least monthly by the end of 2011. By 2015, over 600 million mobile users in China will be mobile internet users, making China by far the largest single-country market for the mobile web.
In Russia, mobile web penetration will go from 29% of mobile users this year to 36% by 2015. Growth in India and Brazil will be more dramatic. Triple-digit growth in mobile web users in India will end this year, but penetration will rise from 12% in 2011 to 34% by 2015. In Brazil, 11% of mobile phone users will be online this year, rising to one in four by 2015.
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