The microblogging service Twitter was hacked during May 2009 and stolen internal company data was posted on French blog Korben.info this week.
Twitter founder Evan Williams confirmed the attack in an e-mail to TechCrunch, stating, “In general, most of the sensitive information was personal rather than company-related.”
Nevertheless, Twitter’s alleged internal projections were revealing.
Twitter estimated that 25 million people worldwide would be using the service by the end of 2009.
- 2009: 25 million users
- 2010: 100 million users (300% growth)
- 2011: 350 million users (250% growth)
The firm projected that it would have 100 million users in 2010 and 350 million in 2011.
“Assuming the information is legitimate, Twitter’s growth projections seem overly optimistic,” said Paul Verna, eMarketer senior analyst.
eMarketer calculated in April that Twitter would have 12.1 million US adult users in 2009 and 18.1 million in 2010.
“A global projection of 25 million users by year-end would assume that US users make up only 40% of the total,” said Mr. Verna. “That seems unlikely given the US-centric nature of the service.”
There are several barriers to widespread Twitter adoption.
In April, Nielsen Online found that only about 40% of the service’s new users return the following month.
A Harvard Business School study estimated that most Twitter users sent an average of only one tweet in their lifetime.
“While many Twitter users consider the service addictive, there also seems to be a growing backlash—a feeling that Twitter-mania might be a 2009 fad,” said Mr. Verna. “If that’s the case, projecting 18 months ahead or beyond seems speculative, at best.”
And then there’s the revenue question…
“Without a sizable revenue stream, which Twitter has yet to invent, it’s difficult to imagine the service growing its audience to the levels they envision—even if venture capitalists continue to look favorably on the Twitter’s prospects,” said Mr. Verna.
The question remains: Are Twitter’s alleged internal numbers overly optimistic—or do the people inside Twitter know something the rest of us don’t?
Note: The French blogger, Korben, claims he saw Twitter’s revenue projections, but chose not to publish them. But if those numbers are out there—and online somewhere—they will probably appear soon. Screen shots and data purportedly from the hack are already appearing all over the Web.
Update: TechCrunch published partial Twitter revenue figures late yesterday afternoon. The figures were “modest.”