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Spot TV Outlook Spotty, Online Upbeat

SEPTEMBER 23, 2008

Carol Krol, Senior Analyst

FBLI
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With spot television revenues projected to slide next year, local TV stations are looking to their Websites to make up the difference.

Total spot TV revenues are expected to decline between 2% and 5% in 2009 compared with this year’s revenues, according to the Television Bureau of Advertising (TVB), a nonprofit trade organization for local television broadcasters, in its annual forecast. It does not help that there will be no Olympics or election spending to help offset an already tough environment.

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In the first half of 2008, total spot revenue, which includes national and local spot TV, was down 5.1%. Automotive advertising dropped a precipitous 13.5% compared with the same period last year.

US Spot vs. Online Advertising Revenue Growth for Local TV Stations, 2009 (% change*)

Local spot TV next year will fare better than national, which is predicted to be down by 7% to 10%.

The online picture for local stations is upbeat, with revenue gains expected to grow 25% to 35% for the local stations’ Websites, according to Borrell Associates.

US Local Broadcast TV Station Online Advertising Revenues, 2003-2010 (millions and % change)

Part of the reason for such healthy gains online is the sorry state of revenues offline.

"It’s going to be a miserable year for broadcast TV, which will allow them to redirect resources to the Internet," said Gordon Borrell, CEO of Borrell, in a conversation with eMarketer.

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