SNL Kagan expects that telecommunications carriers' market share of fixed residential telephone service to decline, mostly due to IP voice services from cable operators.
In the past two years, the telcos' share has dwindled from 90% to 74% of
total connections. Over the next five years, that share will fall another 23%.
US IP voice subscribers will reach
31.4 million in 2012, giving cable operators a 26% market share.
A wider issue, however, is that consumers are increasingly ditching their landlines altogether for mobile phones. SNL Kagan estimates 12 million households currently have mobile-only
phone connection. That number is expected to increase to about 26
million in 2012.
"The maturing of the younger, more tech-savvy demographic combined with
emerging technologies (such as femtocell) set to improve wireless
coverage and reduce costs will further promote the position of
wireless services," said Ian Olgeirson at SNL
Kagan.