Mobile broadcast TV subscribers will total 155.6 million worldwide by the end of 2012, up from 4.4 million in June 2007, according to Datamonitor's "Opportunities in the Mobile Broadcast TV Market, 2006-2012" report.
Infonetics had estimated previously that paying mobile TV subscribers would total 46 million in 2010. Datamonitor's 2010 estimate is a more aggressive 65.6 million.
eMarketer projects that by 2011 there will be significantly more paying mobile video subscribers than mobile TV subscribers worldwide, largely because of the level of 3G penetration. Specifically, there will be approximately 120 million 3G subscribers who pay a premium on top of their data subscriptions for mobile video clips or streams. There will be nearly 80 million mobile TV subscribers worldwide by 2011.
Chris Khouri of Datamonitor noted, "Consumer education, technological fragmentation and content adaptation will have to be addressed first before [mobile TV] mass adoption can take place.
"In most cases, consumers need to see it to believe it in order to see value in subscribing to a mobile broadcast TV service," Mr. Khouri continued. "Strong and innovative marketing campaigns, such as viral marketing or traveling exhibitions, will considerably aid in the mass adoption of mobile broadcast TV services."
The firm estimated the Asia-Pacific region would have the highest number of mobile subscribers, followed by Europe and North America.
The Datamonitor report stated that most mobile operators charge between $8 and $12 per
month for a mobile broadcast TV service. Whether that would sell in the US, where many viewers are used to free TV broadcasts, is an open question.
eMarketer's revenue projections for worldwide mobile TV revenue assume that subscribers will be among the top quartile of mobile customers in terms of income and revenue potential. With such a strong customer base, revenues will reach nearly $7.7 billion in 2011.
Still, eMarketer Senior Analyst John du Pre Gauntt warns that mobile TV marketers should be aware of mobile video as a competitor for viewers' interest.
"Mobile TV providers on the technology and business sides need to be aware that video capture and upload on the phone is far more popular than watching television on a very small screen," Mr. Gauntt says.
Will mobile broadcasts breathe new life into television? Read the eMarketer Mobile TV and Video: Big Dreams for the Smallest Screen report to find out.